Failed agreements and their impact on subsequent mediation onset and success in intrastate conflicts

Aduda, Levke

doi:10.1080/03050629.2019.1642201

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…Third, the most effective civil war agreements leave out few or no policy domains (Jarstad and Nilsson, 2008) and implementation on a broader range of issues reduces the probability of future opposition groups (that were not part of a previous, partial peace agreement) challenging the government (Joshi and Quinn, 2016). Aduda (2019) also shows that failed partial peace agreements lead to less subsequent involvement by external mediators. Meanwhile, CPA implementation produces country-level effects on opposition group behavior beyond those groups that negotiated the agreement, amplifying the positive impact of implementation for post-conflict stability and development.…”

Section: The Importance Of Comprehensive Peace Agreementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

International Third Parties and the Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements After Civil War

Karreth

Quinn

Joshi

et al. 2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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Comprehensive peace agreements (CPAs) are the most impactful negotiated settlements ending civil wars, but their implementation varies across post-conflict countries and over time. To explain varying implementation, this study identifies central challenges in CPA implementation and suggests that international third parties are uniquely positioned to overcome them. (1) IGOs with high economic leverage, and (2) prior foreign aid both set incentives that reduce domestic barriers to implementation. Quantitative evidence on the implementation of CPAs from 1989-2015 supports this argument. Both post-conflict countries’ participation in IGOs with high economic leverage and higher volumes of prior foreign aid are associated with higher rates of CPA implementation. Multiple estimation approaches, including instrumental variables, support this finding. Case evidence from the 2007 CPA in Ivory Coast tracks the processes by which IGOs and donors help overcome stakeholder resistance and facilitate implementation. This finding encourages more concerted efforts by policymakers to advance CPA implementation.

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Section: The Importance Of Comprehensive Peace Agreementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

International Third Parties and the Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements After Civil War

Karreth

Quinn

Joshi

et al. 2022

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…Over the course of a dispute, there are regularly multiple interventions with different techniques. Moreover, subsequent efforts by the same, or different, peacemakers are clearly not independent from prior ones (see also Aduda, 2019; Böhmelt, 2014; Corbetta, 2015; Diehl and Regan, 2015). The level of initial interventions signals the willingness or resolve of the peacemaker, while subsequent, more costly interventions respond to experiences with earlier interventions (Owsiak 2014: 66).…”

Section: Escalation Across Un Interventionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sequencing United Nations peacemaking: Political initiatives and peacekeeping operations

Dorussen

Böhmelt

Clayton

2021

Conflict Management and Peace Science

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The UN has developed a diverse range of peacemaking tools, including different forms of political initiatives (diplomatic, technocratic, and political-development missions) and peacekeeping operations. Yet we know surprisingly little about when and why we observe the onset of different types of UN missions. Examining an “escalatory trajectory,” we analyze the United Nations Peace Initiatives data, a new dataset providing information on all different types of UN engagements. Our main contributions are that we provide insights into how the different types of missions relate to one another and conceptual clarity about what the different types of missions are.

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“…This article analyzes parties' consent to UN mediation processes. Such an inquiry is embedded in the literature on mediation onset and occurrence (Zartman 1985, Greig 2005, Pruitt 2007, Greig and Diehl 2012, Aduda 2019, Lundgren and Svensson 2020. 3 Yet, most studies on mediation onset use a binary variable in terms of whether a mediation process takes place or not.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Challenge of Forging Consent to UN Mediation in Internationalized Civil Wars: The Case of Syria

Hellmüller

2021

Int. Negot.

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This article analyzes how the internationalization of civil wars influences conflict parties’ consent to UN mediation processes. Illustrated by the UN mediation in Syria, I argue that internationalization influences consent directly by obstructing the advent of a costly stalemate and the parties’ perception of mediation as a ‘way out,’ and indirectly by reducing mediators’ leverage and perceived impartiality thereby limiting their tools to foster consent. The article makes three contributions. First, it presents a novel conceptual framework to understand the impact of internationalization on conflict parties’ consent. Second, it provides a long-term analysis of UN mediation in Syria from 2012–2020. Third, it contributes to a broader discussion about how civil wars end. This is of particular relevance as the prioritization of a political over a military end to civil wars, which was dominant in the early post-Cold War period, is no longer unquestioned.

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Failed agreements and their impact on subsequent mediation onset and success in intrastate conflicts

Cited by 5 publications

References 54 publications

International Third Parties and the Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements After Civil War

International Third Parties and the Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements After Civil War

Sequencing United Nations peacemaking: Political initiatives and peacekeeping operations

The Challenge of Forging Consent to UN Mediation in Internationalized Civil Wars: The Case of Syria

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