The Challenge of Forging Consent to UN Mediation in Internationalized Civil Wars: The Case of Syria

Abstract

This article analyzes how the internationalization of civil wars influences conflict parties’ consent to UN mediation processes. Illustrated by the UN mediation in Syria, I argue that internationalization influences consent directly by obstructing the advent of a costly stalemate and the parties’ perception of mediation as a ‘way out,’ and indirectly by reducing mediators’ leverage and perceived impartiality thereby limiting their tools to foster consent. The article makes three contributions. First, it presents a novel conceptual framework to understand the impact of internationalization on conflict parties’ consent. Second, it provides a long-term analysis of UN mediation in Syria from 2012–2020. Third, it contributes to a broader discussion about how civil wars end. This is of particular relevance as the prioritization of a political over a military end to civil wars, which was dominant in the early post-Cold War period, is no longer unquestioned.

Multiparty mediation in a changing world: the emergence and impact of parallel processes to UN peacemaking in Syria and Libya

“…Second, and relatedly, the political negotiations held under UN auspices did not manage to move the parties closer to an agreement. While there was some progress at times, any hope for a reduction of violence or a substantive agreement as a result of the talks in Geneva was quickly destroyed by renewed attacks (Bellamy, 2022;Hellmüller, 2021;Akbarzadeh and Saba, 2019) [16]. The UN-led process thus led to a vacuum that other peacemakers could fill [17].…”

“…The Syrian armed conflict has become a prime example of an internationalized civil war, where external interventions have profoundly shaped the conflict dynamics (Phillips, 2016; Hellmüller, 2021). This has impacted the peace process, which has yet to bring a settlement to the conflict that has been going on for more than a decade.…”

“…Situating mediation in its broader structural context, we analyze both the changing environment and elements of multiparty mediation. Second, we contribute to the literature on mediation in internationalized civil wars by studying the role of diverse actors in addressing these types of conflicts and by providing two in-depth cases studies (Jenne and Popovic, 2017;Kane, 2020;Hellmüller, 2021Hellmüller, , 2022. The article is also of high policy relevance.…”

What is in a Mandate? Introducing the UN Peace Mission Mandates Dataset

“…The oversight of political missions in existing datasets is not surprising insofar as they have received less scholarly attention than PKOs. As Whitfield (2010, 27) states, “the small size and low price tag of most political missions as compared to peacekeeping operations – as well as the less-than-headline-grabbing nature of many of their achievements – contributes to the relative obscurity of their efforts.” While some SPMs or SE/SAs are analyzed in the mediation literature (Iji 2017, Hudáková 2021, Hellmüller 2021a), studies on PKOs and on political missions remain remarkably segregated.…”

Conflict management or conflict resolution: how do major powers conceive the role of the United Nations in peacebuilding?

“…This increasing contestation and global power shifts pose challenges to multilateral institutions (Dingwerth et al, 2019 ; Kruck & Zangl, 2020 ; Newman, 2007 ; Stephen & Zürn, 2019 ; Zangl et al, 2016 ; Zürn & Stephen, 2010 ), including the UN. Indeed, its incapacity to bring armed conflicts, such as Syria, Yemen, and most recently Ukraine, to a negotiated end is an illustration of this crisis (Hellmüller, 2021 ).…”