Facing climatic and anthropogenic changes in the Mediterranean basin: What will be the medium-term impact on water stress?

Abstract

The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the current and future water stress state of this region. The medium-term evolution of water stress is investigated using climatic scenarios and a water-use scenario based on efficiency improvements following the recommendations of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, a 30-50% decline in freshwater resources is simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. While total water withdrawals would stabilize, or even decrease (10-40%), in several northern catchments, they would double in southern and eastern catchments. These changes should significantly increase water stress over the Mediterranean basin and exacerbate the disparities between rims.

Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia

“…This optimization has been carried out in three phases: (1) a random draw of 1715 combinations of parameters (X1, X2, X3, and X4) of the model enabled us to identify the best set of parameters which was subsequently used as a starting point for the Rosenbrock [32] non-linear optimization of the production function, followed by a second Rosenbrock optimization of the parameters of the transfer function; (2) 100 repetitions of the first phase enabled us to identify the best combination of parameters; and, finally, (3) we carried out a local fine-tuning of parameters, using the Nelder and Mead [33] simplex technique in order to optimize all the parameters depending on the combination chosen during phase (2). This three-phase optimization procedure was chosen among others because of his capability to avoid local minima in the objective function and because of its short execution time.…”

“…However, hydrological cycle has been altered by human activities and climate change [2,3]. Therefore, it is essential to account for water inflow in order to insure a correct monitor and assessment of water for multipurpose reservoir or river basin [2,3]. However, a major effect of climate change is likely to be alterations in hydrologic cycles and changes in water availability [4].…”

“…Therefore, it is primordial to have knowledge on streamflow in order to better assess the quantity of existing water for multiple purposes. However, hydrological cycle has been altered by human activities and climate change [2,3]. Therefore, it is essential to account for water inflow in order to insure a correct monitor and assessment of water for multipurpose reservoir or river basin [2,3].…”

Addressing drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region

“…The NDVI can be obtained from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, among others , and be used as an estimate of biomass and net primary production (Leprieur et al, 2000). Many studies have addressed future drought conditions and water stress (Burke and Brown, 2010;Dai, 2011;Milano et al, 2012;Li et al, 2008). By applying a well-performing drought index, not only the characteristics of current and past drought events can be determined, but in combination with climate projections, future conditions can also be addressed.…”

Treated wastewater irrigation effects on soil hydraulic conductivity and aggregate stability of loamy soils in Israel

“…The eastern Mediterranean countries face increasing water stress due to enhanced water withdrawal as well as higher annual mean temperatures and decreased annual precipitation from climate change (Milano et al, 2012;Smiatek et al, 2011). In this region, supplementary agricultural irrigation is necessary due to the insufficient precipitation.…”