The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's regions most vulnerable to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the impacts of these changes on water resources. Based on global climate projections and water-use scenarios inspired by national reports, the current water stress state is addressed first and then it is explored for the mediumterm. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, this stress could increase over the whole Mediterranean basin, notably because of a 30-50% decline in freshwater resources as a result of climate change. In addition, under a business-as-usual water-use scenario, total water withdrawals are projected to double on the southern and eastern rims. These worrying trends indicate the need to develop mitigation scenarios. In accord with the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development, an alternative water-use scenario based on improvements in the efficiency of water distribution networks and of irrigated agriculture is investigated. Such progress would stabilize total water withdrawals over the Mediterranean basin and even make them decrease (10-40%) in many northern catchments. Water stress could thus be tempered in some eastern catchments and remain low on the northern rim. This study highlights the importance of developing sustainable development strategies to cope with climatic and anthropogenic changes in order to explore their impacts at regional scales. It supports the need to focus on the most vulnerable areas within the Mediterranean basin. Key words regional assessment; water stress index; climate scenarios; water-use scenarios; sustainable development strategies; Mediterranean basin Etat actuel des ressources en eau en Méditerranée et tendances futures sous contraintes de changements climatiques et anthropiques Résumé Le bassin méditerranéen a été identifié comme l'une des régions au monde les plus vulnérables aux changements climatiques et anthropiques. Une méthode intégrant les spécificités du bassin a été développée afin d'évaluer les impacts de ces changements sur les ressources en eau. Elle s'appuie sur des projections climatiques globales et des scénarios d'usages de l'eau, définis à partir de rapports nationaux, pour évaluer l'état actuel du stress hydrique et son évolution à moyen terme. Actuellement, le sud et l'est de la méditerranée doivent faire face à un stress hydrique sévère, voire à des pénuries d'eau. D'ici 2050, le stress hydrique pourrait augmenter sur l'ensemble du pourtour méditerranéen, en particulier du fait d'une diminution de 30 à 50 % des ressources en eau associée aux changements climatiques. De plus, selon un scénario d'usages de l'eau tendanciel, les prélèvements totaux en eau pourraient doubler sur les rives sud et est de la Méditerranée. Ces tendances suggèrent le besoin de développer des scénarios alternatifs. En se fondant sur la Stratégie Méditerranéenne pour le Développement D...
The Mediterranean basin has been identified as one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climatic and anthropogenic changes. A methodology accounting for the basin specific conditions is developed to assess the current and future water stress state of this region. The medium-term evolution of water stress is investigated using climatic scenarios and a water-use scenario based on efficiency improvements following the recommendations of the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development. Currently, the southern and eastern rims are experiencing high to severe water stress. By the 2050 horizon, a 30-50% decline in freshwater resources is simulated over most of the Mediterranean basin. While total water withdrawals would stabilize, or even decrease (10-40%), in several northern catchments, they would double in southern and eastern catchments. These changes should significantly increase water stress over the Mediterranean basin and exacerbate the disparities between rims.
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