The prealpine Rietholzbach research catchment provides long‐term continuous hydroclimatological measurements in northeastern Switzerland, including lysimeter evapotranspiration measurements since 1976, and soil moisture measurements since 1994. We analyze here the monthly data record over 32 years (1976–2007), with a focus on the extreme 2003 European drought. In particular, we assess whether the well‐established hypothesis that the 2003 event was due to spring precipitation deficits is valid at the site. The Rietholzbach measurements are found to be internally consistent and representative for a larger region in Switzerland. Despite the scale discrepancy (3.14 m2 versus 3.31 km2), the lysimeter seepage and catchment‐wide streamflow show similar monthly dynamics. High correlations are further found with other streamflow measurements within the Thur river basin (1750 km2) and—for interannual anomalies—also in most of northern Switzerland. Analyses for 2003 confirm the occurrence of extreme heat and drought conditions at Rietholzbach. However, unlike findings from regional‐scale modeling studies, they reveal a late onset of the soil moisture deficit (from June onward), despite large precipitation deficits from mid‐February to mid‐April. These early spring deficits were mostly compensated for by decreased runoff during this period and excess precipitation in the preceding weeks to months (including in the 2002 fall). Our results show that evapotranspiration excess in June 2003 was the main driver initiating the 2003 summer drought conditions in Rietholzbach, contributing 60% of the June 2003 water storage deficit. Finally, long‐lasting drought effects on the lysimeter water storage due to rewetting inhibition were recorded until spring 2004.

No abstract

In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes -urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings.

Abstract. This study compares four different potential evapotranspiration equations according to Priestley Taylor, Kimberly Penman, Penman Monteith (FAO-56) and Hargreaves on a global basis to demonstrate their difference, and assess their impact on the calculation of stream flows. The various equations of potential evapotranspiration show great differences in magnitude. But due to the limited availability of validation data, it is difficult to assess which method is the physically most reasonable to be applied. According to this study, the radiation-based Priestley Taylor equation proved to be most suitable for a global application. For the calculation of stream flows, however, the processes involved in the derivation of actual evapotranspiration values from potential evapotranspiration values appear more relevant than the absolute value of the potential evapotranspiration itself.

Abstract. The Standardized Precipitation-Evaporation Index (SPEI) was applied in order to address the drought conditions under current and future climates in the Jordan River region located in the southeastern Mediterranean area. In the first step, the SPEI was derived from spatially interpolated monthly precipitation and temperature data at multiple timescales: accumulated precipitation and monthly mean temperature were considered over a number of timescalesfor example 1, 3, and 6 months. To investigate the performance of the drought index, correlation analyses were conducted with simulated soil moisture and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) obtained from remote sensing. A comparison with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), i.e., a drought index that does not incorporate temperature, was also conducted. The results show that the 6-month SPEI has the highest correlation with simulated soil moisture and best explains the interannual variation of the monthly NDVI. Hence, a timescale of 6 months is the most appropriate when addressing vegetation growth in the semiarid region. In the second step, the 6-month SPEI was derived from three climate projections based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. When comparing the period 2031-2060 with 1961-1990, it is shown that the percentage of time with moderate, severe and extreme drought conditions is projected to increase strongly. To address the impact of drought on the agricultural sector, the irrigation water demand during certain drought years was thereafter simulated with a hydrological model on a spatial resolution of 1 km. A large increase in the demand for irrigation water was simulated, showing that the agricultural sector is expected to become even more vulnerable to drought in the future.

No abstract

The aim of the study is an impact analysis of global climate change on regional hydrology with special emphasis on discharge conditions and floods. The investigations are focussed on the major part of the German Rhine catchment with a drainage area of approx. 110,000 km 2 . This area is subdivided into 23 subcatchments. In a first step, the hydrological model HBV-D serves to simulate runoff conditions under present climate for the individual subbasins. Simulated, large scale atmospheric fields, provided by two different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and driven by the emission scenario IS95a (''business as usual'') are then used as input to the method of expanded downscaling (EDS). EDS delivers local time series of scenario climate as input to HBV-D. In a final step, the investigations are focussed on the assessment of possible future runoff conditions under the impact of climate change. The study indicates a potential increase in precipitation, mean runoff and flood discharge for small return intervals. However, the uncertainty range that originates from the application of the whole model chain and two different GCMs is high. This leads to high cumulative uncertainties, which do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the development of future extreme floods.

Abstract. Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a first-time overview of the current and possible future land and water conditions of a major part of the Eastern Mediterranean region (ca. 100 000 km2) is given. First, we applied the hydrological model TRAIN to simulate current water availability (runoff and groundwater recharge) and irrigation water demand on a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution. The results demonstrate the scarcity of water resources in the study region, with extremely low values of water availability in the semi-arid and arid parts. Then, a set of four divergent scenarios on the future of water has been developed using a stakeholder driven approach. Relevant drivers for land-use/land-cover change were fed into the LandSHIFT.R model to produce land-use and land-cover maps for the different scenarios. These maps were used as input to TRAIN in order to generate scenarios of water availability and irrigation water demand for the region. For this study, two intermediate scenarios were selected, with projected developments ranging between optimistic and pessimistic futures (with regard to social and economic conditions in the region). Given that climate conditions remain unchanged, the simulations show both increases and decreases in water availability, depending on the future pattern of natural and agricultural vegetation and the related dominance of hydrological processes.