Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

Iverson, Louis R.; Prasad, Anantha; Peters, Matthew P.; Matthews, Stephen N.

doi:10.3390/f10110989

Cited by 38 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(86 reference statements)

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“…However, the simulation model of this study concentrates on the logistics of the wood supply chain and thus connects the initial harvesting and final industry consumption of those studies [22][23][24]. Furthermore, impacts of climate change and risks were simulated on a higher abstraction level with other methods for upstream processes such as primal tree planting, forest stand growths, and forest management, but the studies did not focus on supply chain management and wood logistic [25][26][27][28]. Others simulated wood supply chains and pointed out the resulting outcomes of risks such as raw material availability and quality [19], quality loss during storage [29], and oversupply [13,14], but did not focus on concrete contingency strategies and plans to give operative decision support to manage those risks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contingency Plans for the Wood Supply Chain Based on Bottleneck and Queuing Time Analyses of a Discrete Event Simulation

Kögler

Rauch

2020

Forests

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Wood supply chain performance suffers from risks intensified by more frequent and extreme natural calamities such as windstorms, bark beetle infestations, and ice-break treetops. In order to limit further damage and wood value loss after natural calamities, high volumes of salvage wood have to be rapidly transported out of the forest. In these cases, robust decision support and coordinated management strategies based on advanced contingency planning are needed. Consequently, this study introduces a contingency planning toolbox consisting of a discrete event simulation model setup for analyses on an operational level, strategies to cope with challenging business cases, as well as transport templates to analyze outcomes of decisions before real, costly, and long-lasting changes are made. The toolbox enables wood supply managers to develop contingency plans to prepare for increasing risk events and more frequent natural disturbances due to climate change. Crucial key performance indicators including truck to wagon ratios, truck and wagon utilization, worktime coordination, truck queuing times, terminal transhipment volume, and required stockyard are presented for varying delivery time, transport tonnage, and train pick-up scenarios. The strategy BEST FIT was proven to provide robust solutions which saves truck and train resources, as well as keeps transhipment volume on a high level and stockyard and queuing time on a low level. Permission granted for increased truck transport tonnages was evaluated as a potential means to reduce truck trips, if working times and train pick-ups are coordinated. Furthermore, the practical applicability for contingency planning is demonstrated by highly relevant business cases such as limited wagon or truck availability, defined delivery quota, terminal selection, queuing time reduction, or scheduled stock accumulation. Further research should focus on the modeling and management of log quality deterioration and the resulting wood value loss caused by challenging transport and storage conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contingency Plans for the Wood Supply Chain Based on Bottleneck and Queuing Time Analyses of a Discrete Event Simulation

Kögler

Rauch

2020

Forests

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“…Consequence is a climatic debt [92], extinction debt [93] or resilience debt [88] which is bound to be "catalyzed by disturbance" [6]. To work towards healthy forest and forest functions in a changing climate requires an actively assisted shift in the species spectrum [42,44,45,48,49].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although each study uses its own set of scenarios most of them determine a climate shift in the order of 0.5-5 km per year [34,[39][40][41]. [40][41][42][43][44] consternate that natural tree species migration is too slow fueling a controversal debate on assisted migration [45][46][47][48][49][50].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Analogues for Temperate European Forests –Forestry Practice Profits From Silvicultural Evidence in Twin Regions

Mette¹,

Brandl²,

Kölling³

2021

Preprint

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Climate analogues provide forestry practice empirical evidence of how forests are managed in “twin” regions, i.e. regions where the current climate is comparable to the expected future climate at a site of interest. But the uncertain future climate creates uncertainty in how to adapt the forests. We therefore investigate how the uncertainty in future climate affects tree species suitability and whether there is a common underlying pattern. Like most studies we employ different ensemble variants of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. But instead of focusing on a single point in future time, we resolve each variant in a climate trajectory from 2000 to 2100. We calculate climatic distances between the climate trajectories of our site of interest and the current climate in Europe, generating maps with twin regions from 2000 to 2100. Forest inventories from the twin regions allow us to trace the changes in the prevalence of 23 major tree species. We find that it is not the direction but rather the velocity of the change that differs between the scenarios. We use this pattern to propose a tree species suitability concept that integrates the uncertainty in future climate. Twin regions provide further information on silvicultural practices, pest management, product chains etc.

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“…Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to favor oaks over their mesic competitors by the year 2100 (Iverson et al 2008(Iverson et al , 2019Butler et al 2015). However, it is not certain if or when the effects of climate change will impede mesophytic competitors (Ma et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predisposing factors’ effects on mortality of oak (Quercus) and hickory (Carya) species in mature forests undergoing mesophication in Appalachian Ohio

2021

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Background Mature oak (Quercus spp.) and hickory (Carya spp.) trees are gradually being replaced by more shade-tolerant tree species across the eastern U.S., likely due to fire suppression and increased precipitation. Oaks and hickories are highly valuable to wildlife; therefore, studying their mortality patterns can provide information on the longevity of habitat quality for many animal species. Oak mortality has most often been studied following large oak decline events, but background mortality rates in forests with aging oak and hickory canopies warrant equal attention, especially in the context of widespread oak and hickory regeneration failure. Methods We studied background mortality rates of five oak and one hickory species over a 23–25 year time period (1993–1995 to 2018), using 82 1/20th hectare permanent plots on the Marietta Unit of the Wayne National Forest in southeastern Ohio. We calculated mortality rates based on remeasurement of individual trees for white oak (Quercus alba), chestnut oak (Quercus montana), northern red oak (Quercus rubra), black oak (Quercus velutina), scarlet oak (Quercus coccinea), and pignut hickory (Carya glabra). For each of these species other than scarlet oak, we also modeled the relationships of mortality probability with a priori topographic, soil, stand structural, and individual tree covariates, using a mixed-effects logistic regression framework. Results The species with the highest mortality rate was scarlet oak (61.3%), followed by northern red oak (41.4%), black oak (26.7%), pignut hickory (23.9%), white oak (23.4%), and chestnut oak (19.1%). In our models, northern red oak mortality was associated with more mesic slope positions, shallower solums, more acidic soils, and older stand ages. Pignut hickory and chestnut oak mortality rates were associated with higher basal areas on the plot, while white oak mortality showed the opposite pattern. Conclusions Our data suggest that red oak subgenus trees in mature forests of our area will become increasingly uncommon relative to white oak subgenus trees, as the result of higher mortality rates likely related to the shorter lifespans of these species. Particularly vulnerable areas may include more mesic topographic positions, shallower or more acidic soil, and older stands. Since maintaining oak subgenus diversity is beneficial to wildlife diversity in the eastern U.S., managers in areas with extensive mature mixed-oak forests could choose to favor the red oak subgenus when conducting silvicultural treatments.

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Facilitating Adaptive Forest Management under Climate Change: A Spatially Specific Synthesis of 125 Species for Habitat Changes and Assisted Migration over the Eastern United States

Cited by 38 publications

References 68 publications

Contingency Plans for the Wood Supply Chain Based on Bottleneck and Queuing Time Analyses of a Discrete Event Simulation

Contingency Plans for the Wood Supply Chain Based on Bottleneck and Queuing Time Analyses of a Discrete Event Simulation

Climate Analogues for Temperate European Forests –Forestry Practice Profits From Silvicultural Evidence in Twin Regions

Predisposing factors’ effects on mortality of oak (Quercus) and hickory (Carya) species in mature forests undergoing mesophication in Appalachian Ohio

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