Extinction threat to neglected Plinia edulis exacerbated by climate change, yet likely mitigated by conservation through sustainable use

Abstract

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on species distribution has several implications for conservation. Plinia edulis is a rare and threatened tree species from Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest. In this study, we assessed the impact of global climate change on the distribution of P. edulis. Additionally, we evaluated the efficacy of the Brazilian protected network to conserve this species. Ecological niche models were built using the maximum entropy method based on occurrence records and environmental predictors. Models predicted a reduction of climatically suitable areas for P. edulis in all evaluated scenarios in the coming years. Furthermore, we observed that Brazilian protected areas (PAs) are ineffective to conserve this species. Given the fact that P. edulis is a promising tree species rarely found within Brazilian PAs and threatened by global climate change, we strongly recommend the cultivation of this multipurpose species in agroforestry systems, landscaping and homegardens in order to promote its conservation through sustainable use.

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

“…Several studies forecasted the impacts of climate change on species distribution by using ENMs worldwide 44 – 47 , and consequently on ecosystem functionality 4 , 48 . The worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5) showed the highest average decline in BAH in both non-dispersal (56.3%) and full dispersal (41.9%), when compared to the stabilization scenario (SSP2-4.5) and in 2061–2080, showing that species tend to be more threatened in this scenario and year, as demonstrated in other studies conducted with Brazilian species 49 , 50 . Our study evaluated widespread plant species, such as Axonopus fissifolius , occurring in all Brazilian phytogeographic domains and species with a narrow-ranged distribution, such as Adesmia bicolor from South Brazilian grasslands (Pampa).…”

“…All species analyzed here have a great potential to be conserved through a conservation-by-use approach, because of their different uses that do not necessarily jeopardize reproduction and persistence. They play an important role among local communities 41 , 48 , 50 , 75 , 76 and farmers’ livelihoods 31 , 42 . Searching for evidence of conservation among species with economic and cultural values, Reis et al 42 noticed that the species Ilex paraguariensis , A. angustifolia and B. antiacantha were intentionally favored through protection, transplantation and selection by farmers.…”

“…Nevertheless, Santini et al 51 recently concluded that this practice reduces the predictive probability of models. Although we binarized ENMs outputs to quantify the climate change impacts, we applied a threshold highly indicated for conservation purposes for showing high performance in the identification of suitable areas and commonly used 50 , 84 – 86 . We assumed that the species are at equilibrium with the environment 87 and occurrence records were sampled randomly 88 .…”

“…To map changes in future ranges of species, we converted the continuous habitat suitability into binaries using the maximum training sensitivity plus specificity threshold 85 , 123 . This threshold is indicated for conservation purposes for its high performance in the identification of suitable areas 50 , 84 – 86 . To assess whether species will face a decline or expansion in BAH under future climate conditions, we quantified the difference between the relative number of pixels occupied in current and future BAHs.…”

The importance of biotic interactions in distribution models depends on the type of ecological relations, spatial scale and range.

“…Over the last thirty years, there has been a massive increase in the number of published studies using species distribution models (SDMs) (reviewed in Lobo et al 2010 andMelo-Merino et al 2020). Species distribution models are used to identify areas of potentially suitable habitat by linking species occurrences to environmental variables (Loyola et al, 2012;Silva et al, 2014). These predictions of suitable habitats have many applications (Elith & Leathwick 2009), including: the estimation of potential distribution under different climate change scenarios (Marshall at al.…”