Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality

Islam, Muhammed N.

doi:10.1080/000368498325930

Cited by 113 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Firstly, previous studies frequently include both countries as part of larger samples in relation to, inter alia, low, middle, high income countries; selected Asian countries; and as OECD countries (Dutt and Ghosh, 1996;Riezaman et al, 1996;Rahman and Mustafa, 1997;Islam, 1998;Kónya, 2004). Only one previous study (Awokuse, 2005a) focuses exclusively on South Korea, whilst only four previous studies focus on Japan alone (Grabowski et al, 1990;Boltho, 1996;Hatemi-J, 2002;Awokuse, 2005b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Subsequently, a number of studies have adopted this revised methodology (Marin, 1992;Dutt and Ghosh, 1996;Rahman and Mustafa, 1997;Islam, 1998;Ekanayake, 1999;Anoruo and Ramchander, 2000;Chandra, 2004 and2005;Thangavelu and Rajaguru, 2004). Furthermore, of particular significance, several previous studies adopt a multivariate approach using import growth as an additional explanatory variable (Riezman et al, 1996;Asafu-Adjaye and Chakraborty, 1999;Thangavelu and Rajaguru, 2004).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies

Zang

Baimbridge

2011

Applied Economics

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This paper investigates the relationship between exports, imports and economic growth for South Korea and Japan by constructing a vector autoregression (VAR) model. Causality is examined between real GDP, real exports and real imports. Several principal results emerge from the empirical work. Firstly, the three variables are cointegrated for both countries, implying that a long-run steady state exists. Secondly, there is evidence of bi-directional causality between imports and economic growth for both countries. Finally, Japan seems to experience export-led growth, while GDP growth in South Korea has a negative effect on export growth. These contrasting findings could result from export goods in Japan exhibiting greater non-price competitive aspects, although their success fails to trigger a virtuous circle since growth fails to lead to increased exports, whilst for South Korea, output growth leads to a decrease in export growth suggesting a strong domestic market.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies

Zang

Baimbridge

2011

Applied Economics

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“…Jung and Marshall (1985) estimated the causality between exports and economic growth for 37 developing countries, and found that the export-led hypothesis is supported in only four out of the countries. Biswal and Dhawan (1998) employed the cointegration and the vector error-correction techniques to test the causal relationship between exports and economic growth using data for Taiwan during the period of 1960 -1990 Islam (1998) found that export expansion causes growth in two-third of the countries. Shan and Sun (1998) found a bidirectional causal relationship between exports and real industrial output for China in during the period 1987 to 1996.…”

Section: The Empirical Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Causal Relationships among GDP, Exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Developing Countries

Mehrara

Haghnejad

Dehnavi

et al. 2013

ILSHS

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Using panel techniques, this paper estimates the causality among economic growth, exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows for developing countries over the period of 1980 to 2008. The study indicates that; firstly, there is strong evidence of bidirectional causality between economic growth and FDI inflows. Secondly, the exports-led growth hypothesis is supported by the finding of unidirectional causality running from exports to economic growth in both the short-run and the long-run. Thirdly, export is not Granger caused by economic growth and FDI inflow in either the short run or the long run. On the basis of the obtained results, it is recommended that outwardoriented strategies and policies of attracting FDI be pursued by developing countries to achieve higher rates of economic growth. On the other hand, the countries can increase FDI inflows by stimulating their economic growth.

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“…Absence of cointegration in original time series indicates the problem of causality and spurious estimation. The contemporary studies of Kugler (1991), Serletis (1992), Oxley (1993), Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse (1993), Dutt and Ghosh (1994), Ghatak et al (1997), Rahman and Mustafa (1997) and Islam (1998) Shah et al (2015) have studied agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan. The study has focused to evaluate impact of agricultural exports on macroeconomic performance estimated through employing Johansen cointegration approach for 1972-2008 of Pakistan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An empirical analysis of agricultural export on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan

Ahmad¹,

Ahmad

2018

Int. j. adv. appl. sci.

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This study has focused to analyze the influence of agricultural and nonagricultural export on economic growth in Pakistan obtaining annual time series data from 1972 to 2014. Gross domestic product, labor force, capital formation, agriculture exports, non-agriculture exports, exchange rate and consumer price index are prominent variables of the study. Johansen cointegration, Error Correction Model (ECM) and Granger Causality econometric approaches have employed for empirical analysis of the study. Labor force and exchange rate stationary at 1 st difference while all other variables are stationary at level. According to empirical estimates, long run equilibrium exists among agriculture exports and non-agriculture exports. Error correction model estimates have justified the existence of short run equilibrium among variables of the study. Agriculture must have significant importance, increasing productivity through priority policy measures of adequate provision of inputs, infusion of innovative mechanization and minimization of market imperfection. Potential productivity in agriculture more desirable goal and agro-based industries must familiarized in agriculture to export value added goods rather than raw material to increasing foreign exchange earning of country.

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Export expansion and economic growth: testing for cointegration and causality

Cited by 113 publications

References 26 publications

Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies

Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies

Dynamic Causal Relationships among GDP, Exports, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Developing Countries

An empirical analysis of agricultural export on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan

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