This paper develops a multivariate error-correction model to test the causality between exports and growth in 15 Asian countries, 1967-91. The underlying series are tested as non-stationary in levels but stationary in first differences. The causal factors are cointegrated in five of these countries only. Causality test results indicate that export expansion causes growth in two-third of these countries, corrected for simultaneity between the causal factors. A country with a large public sector, higher level of economic development, and which is less vulnerable to external economic shocks is more likely to reap the benefits of export promotion strategies. The causal inferences are fairly stable over the sample period.

This study finds that on average aid has little impact on economic growth, although a robust finding is that aid promotes growth only in a politically stable environment irrespective of the quality of the country's economic policies. Aid is ineffective in an unstable environment even in the presence of good policies. The results, however, indicate that policy is more effective in promoting growth when supported by increased aid flows rather than aid being more effective in good policy environment. The empirical results also provide some tentative support for the presence of an aid Laffer curve in the politically stable countries. The allocation of aid is found to be influenced by the country size and its state of development, rather than the quality of policy.

BackgroundIn spite of high prevalence rates, little is known about health seeking and related expenditure for chronic non-communicable diseases in low-income countries. We assessed relevant patterns of health seeking and related out-of-pocket expenditure in Bangladesh.MethodsWe used data from a household survey of 2500 households conducted in 2013 in Rangpur district. We employed multinomial logistic regression to assess factors associated with health seeking choices (no care or self-care, semi-qualified professional care, and qualified professional care). We used descriptive statistics (5% trimmed mean and range, median) to assess related patterns of out-of-pocket expenditure (including only direct costs).ResultsEight hundred sixty-six (12.5%) out of 6958 individuals reported at least one chronic non-communicable disease. Of these 866 individuals, 139 (16%) sought no care or self-care, 364 (42%) sought semi-qualified care, and 363 (42%) sought qualified care. Multivariate analysis confirmed that the following factors increased the likelihood of seeking qualified care: a higher education, a major chronic non-communicable disease, a higher socio-economic status, a lower proportion of chronic household patients, and a shorter distance between a household and a sub-district public referral health facility. Seven hundred fifty-four (87 %) individuals reported out-of-pocket expenditure, with drugs absorbing the largest portion (85%) of total expenditure. On average, qualified care seekers encountered the highest out-of-pocket expenditure, followed by those who sought semi-qualified care and no care, or self-care.ConclusionOur study reveals insufficiencies in health provision for chronic conditions, with more than half of all affected people still not seeking qualified care, and the majority still encountering considerable out-of-pocket expenditure. This calls for urgent measures to secure better access to care and financial protection.

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