Exploring Winter Mortality Variability in Five Regions of England Using Back Trajectory Analysis

Abstract

Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. ABSTRACT: This paper aims to define atmospheric pathways related with the occurrence of daily winter low temperature episodes (LTE) in England, for the 26-yr period 1974-99, and to reveal possible associations with increased mortality rates. For this purpose, backward airmass trajectories, corresponding to LTE in five regions of England, were deployed. A statistically significant increase in mortality levels, at the 0.05 level, was found for LTE, compared to non-LTE days across all five regions. Seven categories of atmospheric trajectory patterns associated with LTE were identified: east, local, west, North Atlantic, Arctic, southwest, and Scandinavian. Consideration of the link between airmass trajectory patterns and mortality levels by region revealed a possible west-to-east split in the nature of air masses connected with elevated mortality. Specifically, for the West Midlands and northwest regions, relatively warm winter weather conditions from the west, most likely associated with the eastward progression of low pressure systems, are allied with the highest daily average mortality counts, whereas, for the northeast, Humberside/York, and southeast regions, cold continental air advection from northern or eastern Europe, which lasts for several days and is linked with either a blocking pattern over the western margins of Europe or an intense high pressure anomaly over eastern or northern Europe, appears important in mortality terms. This finding confirms that winter weather health associations are complex, such that climate setting and airmass climatology need to be taken into account when considering climate and health relationships.

Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals

“…Similar is the pattern for the Southeast (Table 2), the West Midlands (Table 3), the Yorkshire and Humber (Table 4) and the Northeast region (Table 5), where classes C6 and C8 presenting the lowest maximum/minimum temperatures are linked with the highest PI values (figures not shown). This finding is in agreement with results provided by Dimitriou et al (2016) who defined atmospheric pathways linked with winter low temperature episodes (LTE) in the same 5 regions of England for the same time period and revealed associations with excess mortality rates. According to them, a statistically significant increase in mortality was calculated for LTE days across all 5 regions studied.…”

“…In the presence of various confounding factors, it can be the slightly higher temperatures that are linked to excess mortality. Furthermore, Dimitriou et al (2016) concluded that in some cases mortality in the 5 regions studied is linked to rather increased winter temperatures associated with longdistance west-to-east flows, resulting in rapidly changing weather, as opposed to stable conditions linked with blocking to the east. Rapidly changing atmospheric pressure and/or temperature have been longed blamed for adverse health effects.…”

“…Centroid maps of surface atmospheric pressure for the most oppressive conditions, as described by ERP class 6 (a), LND class 3 (b), KRZ class 7 (c), PCT class 8 (d), PTT class 3 (e), PXE class 9 (f), CAP class 2 (g), CKM class 2 (h), PXK class 4 (i), SAN class 4 (j). According to Dimitriou et al (2016), easterly flows in England are very often associated with unfavorable conditions for public health, as the advection of very cold continental air from northern/eastern Europe that continues for several days, results in low temperatures and excess mortality. This type of weather is very often associated with a blocking pattern over Western Europe or increased pressure over Eastern/Northern Europe.…”

“…This type of weather is very often associated with a blocking pattern over Western Europe or increased pressure over Eastern/Northern Europe. Specifically for the northwest region, Dimitriou et al (2016) found that easterly short-range flows were linked to a 5.3% increase in winter mortality.…”

Relationships among Environment, Climate, and Longevity in China

“…Nutritional factors include major and trace dietary elements, vitamins, unsaturated fatty acids, and so forth. In the elderly, extreme temperatures have a significant impact on mortality [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ], and exposure, or lack of exposure, to the climatic change often prompts long-term effects of harsh winters can contribute to differences in mortality among these individuals [ 7 ]. Hypoxia induced by living at higher altitudes affects health and disease [ 8 ].…”