Analysis of the synoptic winter mortality climatology in five regions of England: Searching for evidence of weather signals

Abstract

Although heat-related mortality has received considerable research attention, the impact of cold weather on public health is less well-developed, probably due to the fact that physiological responses to cold weather can vary substantially among individuals, age groups, diseases etc., depending on a number of behavioral and physiological factors. In the current work we use the classification techniques provided by the COST-733 software to link synoptic circulation patterns with excess cold-related mortality in 5 regions of England. We conclude that, regardless of the classification scheme used, the most hazardous conditions for public health in England are associated with the prevalence of the Easterly type of weather, favoring advection of cold air from continental Europe. It is noteworthy that there has been observed little-to-no regional variation with regards to the classification results among the 5 regions, suggestive of a spatially homogenous response of mortality to the atmospheric patterns identified. In general, the 10 different groupings of days used reveal that excess winter mortality is linked with the lowest daily minimum/maximum temperatures in the area. However it is not uncommon to observe high mortality rates during days with higher, in relative terms, temperatures, when rapidly changing weather results in an increase of mortality. Such a finding confirms the complexity of cold-related mortality and highlights the importance of synoptic climatology in understanding of the phenomenon.

Relationships among Environment, Climate, and Longevity in China

“…Nutritional factors include major and trace dietary elements, vitamins, unsaturated fatty acids, and so forth. In the elderly, extreme temperatures have a significant impact on mortality [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ], and exposure, or lack of exposure, to the climatic change often prompts long-term effects of harsh winters can contribute to differences in mortality among these individuals [ 7 ]. Hypoxia induced by living at higher altitudes affects health and disease [ 8 ].…”

Weather patterns and all-cause mortality in England, UK

“…Moreover, Lupo et al (2014) correlated hot, dry summers in Moscow, Russia, like the fatal summer of 2010, with atmospheric blocking and El Niño transitions. In the case of England, winter mortality has been associated with cold air masses originating from continental Europe or with eastern flows resulting in rapid changes in weather conditions (Paschalidou et al, 2017). Additionally, a west-to-east contrast in the nature of air masses linked with increased mortality was identified by Dimitriou et al (2016) who reported that, for the West Midlands and northwest regions of England, relatively warm weather conditions from the west are associated with the highest daily average winter mortality, whereas, for the northeast, Humberside/York, and the southeast regions, cold continental air advection from northern/eastern Europe appears to be important in mortality terms.…”

Impact of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings on United Kingdom mortality

“…This increase is largest between 3 and 5 weeks after the SSW central date and results in 621 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI] = 84, 1,136) additional deaths or a 1.7 (eCI = 0.4, 3.1) percentage point increase above median mortality. This work adds to a growing literature assessing the influence of atmospheric flow types on mortality (Paschalidou et al, 2017;Charlton-Perez et al, 2019;Psistaki et al, 2020).…”