Abstract:This study aims to develop an online survey on the tourist perception of the visitor management system of the Plitvice Lakes National Park in Croatia. As tourists are particularly sensitive to organisational issues related to the Park management, a bottom-up approach based on visitors’ opinions has been applied. First of all, a brief chronology has been reconstructed that retraces the most significant stages of the Park. Subsequently, an online questionnaire was structured on the basis of the current Park Mana… Show more
“…Twitter, now referred to as social network X since July 2023, remains the most popular social media platform for sharing crisis-related content and information to support decision-making during crises, natural hazards, or disasters (Comes et Twitter data were collected at both the national and regional levels using hashtags and keywords (Nakatani et al 2014;Merendi 2018;Sergiacomi et al 2022) with the tool 'Packets for academic research purposes' in the R software (R Core Team, 2022). To select only the tweets of interest, results were ltered based on the date of publication (2011 to 2021), location (Italy and Tuscany), and targeted hashtags (#incendioboschivo -forest re or wild re in English [the two English terms are often considered synonyms in Italian]; #antincendiboschivi -forest re ghting service in English; #aib -the Italian acronym for the forest re ghting service, #rischioincendio -wild re risk in English; #wild re, #forest re, #incendio -re in English).…”
Background
Wildfires, primarily human-induced phenomena, given the causally relation with the land use and climate conditions, have seen an increase in intensity and frequency since the beginning of the last century, driven precisely by climatic and socio-economic changes. This shift made suppression an insufficient approach, warranting further investigation into the human component of forest fire prevention. Social and environmental factor analysis is useful for weighing the impacts of the factors that influence fire prevention. In this study, we assess communication impacts by analyzing information flows about wildfires and local risk in Italy and Tuscany. Additionally, direct wildfire impacts are evaluated through the examination of the number of wildfires and burned surfaces. The study employs quantitative, qualitative, and statistical methods to analyze the quality and quantity of information dissemination and investigates the relationship between wildfires and media communication to determine wildfire risk. A comparative methodology between the two factors is applied for selecting critical areas.
Results
Results from the communication analysis reveal that 2017 marked the highest peak of reported wildfires in Italy (450), with Tuscany showing the greatest amount of news (233). Wildfire-related news is spread throughout the year, peaking in the dry season (June to September). Statistical analyses, including single-variable, combination, and interaction models, indicate the strongest correlation is between chronicle articles from local newspapers and wildfire events (adjusted R2 ≈ 0.63, p-value ≈ 0.53). While highlighting the limits of considered media types, a common trend is identified, culminating in a risk map highlighting vulnerable areas.
Conclusions
In conclusion, the wildfire risk is intricately determined by both ecological and social parameters. Our results point out communication as a social parameter to gauge regional fire awareness levels. The wildfire vs. communication index facilitates the comparison of ecological and social parameters, identifying critical areas in Tuscany. These findings lay the foundation for future community involvement in a risk perception study, described in a follow-up paper. A paradigm shift that places centrality on social aspects and influences changes in the decision-making process, is needed to face environmental issues. Future studies should expand the consideration of media sources to enhance the comprehensiveness of the analysis.
“…Twitter, now referred to as social network X since July 2023, remains the most popular social media platform for sharing crisis-related content and information to support decision-making during crises, natural hazards, or disasters (Comes et Twitter data were collected at both the national and regional levels using hashtags and keywords (Nakatani et al 2014;Merendi 2018;Sergiacomi et al 2022) with the tool 'Packets for academic research purposes' in the R software (R Core Team, 2022). To select only the tweets of interest, results were ltered based on the date of publication (2011 to 2021), location (Italy and Tuscany), and targeted hashtags (#incendioboschivo -forest re or wild re in English [the two English terms are often considered synonyms in Italian]; #antincendiboschivi -forest re ghting service in English; #aib -the Italian acronym for the forest re ghting service, #rischioincendio -wild re risk in English; #wild re, #forest re, #incendio -re in English).…”
Background
Wildfires, primarily human-induced phenomena, given the causally relation with the land use and climate conditions, have seen an increase in intensity and frequency since the beginning of the last century, driven precisely by climatic and socio-economic changes. This shift made suppression an insufficient approach, warranting further investigation into the human component of forest fire prevention. Social and environmental factor analysis is useful for weighing the impacts of the factors that influence fire prevention. In this study, we assess communication impacts by analyzing information flows about wildfires and local risk in Italy and Tuscany. Additionally, direct wildfire impacts are evaluated through the examination of the number of wildfires and burned surfaces. The study employs quantitative, qualitative, and statistical methods to analyze the quality and quantity of information dissemination and investigates the relationship between wildfires and media communication to determine wildfire risk. A comparative methodology between the two factors is applied for selecting critical areas.
Results
Results from the communication analysis reveal that 2017 marked the highest peak of reported wildfires in Italy (450), with Tuscany showing the greatest amount of news (233). Wildfire-related news is spread throughout the year, peaking in the dry season (June to September). Statistical analyses, including single-variable, combination, and interaction models, indicate the strongest correlation is between chronicle articles from local newspapers and wildfire events (adjusted R2 ≈ 0.63, p-value ≈ 0.53). While highlighting the limits of considered media types, a common trend is identified, culminating in a risk map highlighting vulnerable areas.
Conclusions
In conclusion, the wildfire risk is intricately determined by both ecological and social parameters. Our results point out communication as a social parameter to gauge regional fire awareness levels. The wildfire vs. communication index facilitates the comparison of ecological and social parameters, identifying critical areas in Tuscany. These findings lay the foundation for future community involvement in a risk perception study, described in a follow-up paper. A paradigm shift that places centrality on social aspects and influences changes in the decision-making process, is needed to face environmental issues. Future studies should expand the consideration of media sources to enhance the comprehensiveness of the analysis.
“…By analyzing a large amount of data on the number of visitors collected in the past, clear guidelines for future management are obtained and are the basis of all plans [31]. GIS is an integral part of managing both visitors and the entire area of the Plitvice Lakes National Park as well as its infrastructure [32]. It is included in all scientific research and projects, plans and projects for the construction of new facilities or walkways and can be considered one of the indispensable tools in the management of the National Park.…”
The most valuable protected natural areas, including national parks, are subjected to the increased visitors count and density, threatening the environmental sustainability and biodiversity conservation. To establish a basis for land management to mitigate these influences, the novel geographic information (GIS)-based environmental susceptibility zoning method was proposed. The study area covered the Plitvice Lakes National Park, as the oldest and largest national park in Croatia, using the historical 20-year visitor data with 19 tourist and hiking routes. Two geospatial analysis methods were evaluated as follows: (1) short-term prediction of visitors count data based on a 10-year historical intervals, and (2) the environmental susceptibility zones delineation method integrated two fundamental factors in the assessment of environmental impacts from route density and historical visitors count on a monthly basis. Four accuracy assessment metrics indicated a moderate accuracy of short-term visitors count prediction, with the coefficient of determination ranging from 0.700 to 0.951. The routes which continue from both entrances indicated the largest visitors load is in the central part of the park, mostly located in the moderately restricted zone. These observations indicated moderate present environmental susceptibility with stable outlook, providing an insight for the nature park management adjustment.
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