The most valuable protected natural areas, including national parks, are subjected to the increased visitors count and density, threatening the environmental sustainability and biodiversity conservation. To establish a basis for land management to mitigate these influences, the novel geographic information (GIS)-based environmental susceptibility zoning method was proposed. The study area covered the Plitvice Lakes National Park, as the oldest and largest national park in Croatia, using the historical 20-year visitor data with 19 tourist and hiking routes. Two geospatial analysis methods were evaluated as follows: (1) short-term prediction of visitors count data based on a 10-year historical intervals, and (2) the environmental susceptibility zones delineation method integrated two fundamental factors in the assessment of environmental impacts from route density and historical visitors count on a monthly basis. Four accuracy assessment metrics indicated a moderate accuracy of short-term visitors count prediction, with the coefficient of determination ranging from 0.700 to 0.951. The routes which continue from both entrances indicated the largest visitors load is in the central part of the park, mostly located in the moderately restricted zone. These observations indicated moderate present environmental susceptibility with stable outlook, providing an insight for the nature park management adjustment.
Plitvice Lakes National Park (PLNP) is the oldest protected area in Croatia (since 1949) and was placed on the UNESCO World Heritage List in1979. It is an area of outstanding universal value consisting of a freshwater ecosystem of 16 lakes divided by tufa barriers. Recently, this area has experienced pressure from visitors and significant infrastructural development. When the previous Management Plan expired in 2017, the PLNP initiated and adopted a new Management Plan. This involved the zonation of management in order to better conserve and use this protected area. Management zonation was based on spatial and other data on the distributions of the species and habitats (Natura 2000 and others); cultural values and geo-localities; visitor experiences; existing and planned infrastructure and settlements. Visitor classes and zones were determined using the Recreation Opportunity Spectrum (ROS) methodology. The new management zonation resulted in an increase of 13.9% in the area of the Park included in the Strict Conservation Zone, while succession and habitat degradation resulted in a decrease in the area of the Park in the Active Management Zone, especially in terms of grassland. Six ROS classes were defined. The established ROS classes and the new management zonation were interconnected, each reflecting the need to manage the protected area in terms of conserving its specific biodiversity and geodiversity, while offering visitors various experience opportunities and meeting the needs of the local community.
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