Understanding wildfire communication: a risk assessment through a new socio-ecological index

Abstract

Background Wildfires, primarily human-induced phenomena, given the causally relation with the land use and climate conditions, have seen an increase in intensity and frequency since the beginning of the last century, driven precisely by climatic and socio-economic changes. This shift made suppression an insufficient approach, warranting further investigation into the human component of forest fire prevention. Social and environmental factor analysis is useful for weighing the impacts of the factors that influence fire prevention. In this study, we assess communication impacts by analyzing information flows about wildfires and local risk in Italy and Tuscany. Additionally, direct wildfire impacts are evaluated through the examination of the number of wildfires and burned surfaces. The study employs quantitative, qualitative, and statistical methods to analyze the quality and quantity of information dissemination and investigates the relationship between wildfires and media communication to determine wildfire risk. A comparative methodology between the two factors is applied for selecting critical areas. Results Results from the communication analysis reveal that 2017 marked the highest peak of reported wildfires in Italy (450), with Tuscany showing the greatest amount of news (233). Wildfire-related news is spread throughout the year, peaking in the dry season (June to September). Statistical analyses, including single-variable, combination, and interaction models, indicate the strongest correlation is between chronicle articles from local newspapers and wildfire events (adjusted R2 ≈ 0.63, p-value ≈ 0.53). While highlighting the limits of considered media types, a common trend is identified, culminating in a risk map highlighting vulnerable areas. Conclusions In conclusion, the wildfire risk is intricately determined by both ecological and social parameters. Our results point out communication as a social parameter to gauge regional fire awareness levels. The wildfire vs. communication index facilitates the comparison of ecological and social parameters, identifying critical areas in Tuscany. These findings lay the foundation for future community involvement in a risk perception study, described in a follow-up paper. A paradigm shift that places centrality on social aspects and influences changes in the decision-making process, is needed to face environmental issues. Future studies should expand the consideration of media sources to enhance the comprehensiveness of the analysis.