Exploring the future of the Coral Sea micronekton

Receveur, Aurore; Dutheil, Cyril; Gorguès, Thomas; Menkès, Christophe E.; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Nicol, Simon; Lehodey, Patrick; Allain, Valérie; Ménard, Frédéric; Lebourges‐Dhaussy, Anne

doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102593

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Previous studies have shown that each earth climate model has its own biases and errors that can propagate in the projections of tuna populations (e.g., Lehodey et al, 2013). To overcome these biases a projection ensemble approach to simulations in model forcings was applied to account for the uncertainty (Bell et al, 2021;Receveur et al, 2021). The ensemble included four different earth climate models (Table 1) obtained from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).…”

Section: Projections Of Ocean Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ocean Futures for the World’s Largest Yellowfin Tuna Population Under the Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification

et al. 2022

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The impacts of climate change are expected to have profound effects on the fisheries of the Pacific Ocean, including its tuna fisheries, the largest globally. This study examined the combined effects of climate change on the yellowfin tuna population using the ecosystem model SEAPODYM. Yellowfin tuna fisheries in the Pacific contribute significantly to the economies and food security of Pacific Island Countries and Territories and Oceania. We use an ensemble of earth climate models to project yellowfin populations under a high greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC RCP8.5) scenario, which includes, the combined effects of a warming ocean, increasing acidification and changing ocean chemistry. Our results suggest that the acidification impact will be smaller in comparison to the ocean warming impact, even in the most extreme ensemble member scenario explored, but will have additional influences on yellowfin tuna population dynamics. An eastward shift in the distribution of yellowfin tuna was observed in the projections in the model ensemble in the absence of explicitly accounting for changes in acidification. The extent of this shift did not substantially differ when the three-acidification induced larval mortality scenarios were included in the ensemble; however, acidification was projected to weaken the magnitude of the increase in abundance in the eastern Pacific. Together with intensive fishing, these potential changes are likely to challenge the global fishing industry as well as the economies and food systems of many small Pacific Island Countries and Territories. The modelling framework applied in this study provides a tool for evaluating such effects and informing policy development.

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Section: Projections Of Ocean Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We applied the ensemble model described in Bell et al (2021) and Receveur et al (2021) to project ocean futures. Briefly, each earth climate model was coupled to NEMO-PISCES to generate SEAPODYM environmental forcings for the period 2011-2100.…”

Section: Projections Of Ocean Futuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean Futures for the World’s Largest Yellowfin Tuna Population Under the Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification

et al. 2022

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Modelling Marine Predator Habitat Using the Abundance of Its Pelagic Prey in the Tropical South-Western Pacific

et al. 2021

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Understanding the ecological mechanisms underpinning distribution patterns is vital in managing populations of mobile marine species. This study is a first step towards an integrated description of the habitats and spatial distributions of marine predators in the Natural Park of the Coral Sea, one of the world’s largest marine-protected areas at about 1.3 million km2, covering the entirety of New Caledonia’s pelagic waters. The study aims to quantify the benefit of including a proxy for prey abundance in predator niche modelling, relative to other marine physical variables. Spatial distributions and relationships with environmental data were analysed using catch per unit of effort data for three fish species (albacore tuna, yellowfin tuna and dolphinfish), sightings collected from aerial surveys for three cetacean guilds (Delphininae, Globicephalinae and Ziphiidae) and foraging locations identified from bio-tracking for three seabird species (wedge-tailed shearwater, Tahiti petrel and red-footed booby). Predator distributions were modelled as a function of a static covariate (bathymetry), oceanographic covariates (sea surface temperature, chlorophyll-a concentration and 20 °C-isotherm depth) and an acoustically derived micronekton preyscape covariate. While distributions were mostly linked to bathymetry for seabirds, and chlorophyll and temperature for fish and cetaceans, acoustically derived prey abundance proxies slightly improved distribution models for all fishes and seabirds except the Tahiti petrel, but not for the cetaceans. Predicted spatial distributions showed that pelagic habitats occupied by predator fishes did not spatially overlap. Finally, predicted habitats and the use of the preyscapes in predator habitat modelling were discussed.

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Towards ecosystem modeling in the deep sea: A review of past efforts and primer for the future

Woodstock

Zhang

2022

Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers

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Exploring the future of the Coral Sea micronekton

Cited by 4 publications

References 81 publications

Ocean Futures for the World’s Largest Yellowfin Tuna Population Under the Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification

Ocean Futures for the World’s Largest Yellowfin Tuna Population Under the Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification

Modelling Marine Predator Habitat Using the Abundance of Its Pelagic Prey in the Tropical South-Western Pacific

Towards ecosystem modeling in the deep sea: A review of past efforts and primer for the future

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