No abstract

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global coupled simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), with trademark biases such as the tendency to form a "double Intertropical convergence zone" and an equatorial cold tongue that extends too far westward. Such biases limit our confidence in projections of the future climate change for this region. In this study, we use a downscaling strategy based on a regional atmospheric general circulation model that accurately captures the SPCZ present-day climatology and interannual variability. More specifically, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected rainfall response to either just correcting present-day CMIP5 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) biases or correcting projected SST changes using an emergent constraint approach. While the equatorial western Pacific projected rainfall increase is robust in our experiments and CMIP5, correcting the projected CMIP5 SST changes yields a considerably larger reduction (~ 25%) than in CMIP5 simulations (~ + 3%) in the southwestern Pacific. Indeed, correcting the projected CMIP5 warming pattern yields stronger projected SST gradients, and more humidity convergence reduction under the SPCZ. Finally, our bias-corrected set of experiments yields an increase in equatorial rainfall and SPCZ variability in the future, but does not support the future increase in the frequency of zonal SPCZ events simulated by CMIP5 models. This study hence suggests that atmospheric downscaling studies should not only correct CMIP5 present-day SST biases but also projected SST changes to improve the reliability of their projections. Additional simulations with different physical parameterizations yield robust results.

Coral reefs and lagoons worldwide are vulnerable environments. However, specific geomorphological reef types (fringing, barrier, atoll, bank for the main ones) can be vulnerable to specific disturbances that will not affect most other reefs. This has implications for local management and science priorities. Several geomorphologically closed atolls of the Pacific Ocean have experienced in recent decades mass benthic and pelagic lagoonal life mortalities, likely triggered by unusually calm weather conditions lasting for several weeks. These events, although poorly known, reported, and characterized, pose a major threat for resource sustainability. Based on a sample of eleven events on eight atolls from the central South Pacific occurring between 1993 and 2012, the conservative environmental thresholds required to trigger such events are identified using sea surface temperature, significant wave height and wind stress satellite data. Using these thresholds, spatial maps of potential risk are produced for the central South Pacific region, with the highest risk zone lying north of Tuamotu Archipelago. A regional climate model, which risk map compares well with observations over the recent period (r=0.97), is then used to downscale the projected future climate. This allows us to estimate the potential change in risk by the end of the 21st century and highlights a relative risk increase of up to 60% for the eastern Tuamotu atolls. However, the small sample size used to train the analysis led to the identification of conservative thresholds that overestimated the observed risk. The results of this study suggest that long-term monitoring of the biophysical conditions of the lagoons at risk would enable more precise identification of the physical thresholds and better understanding of the biological processes involved in these rare, but consequential, mass mortality events.

In the context of a changing climate, understanding the environmental drivers of marine megafauna distribution is important for conservation success. The extent of humpback whale breeding habitats and the impact of temperature variation on their availability are both unknown. We used 19 years of dedicated survey data from seven countries and territories of Oceania (1,376 survey days), to investigate humpback whale breeding habitat diversity and adaptability to climate change. At a fine scale (1 km resolution), seabed topography was identified as an important influence on humpback whale distribution. The shallowest waters close to shore or in lagoons were favored, although humpback whales also showed flexible habitat use patterns with respect to shallow offshore features such as seamounts. At a coarse scale (1° resolution), humpback whale breeding habitats in Oceania spanned a thermal range of 22.3–27.8°C in August, with interannual variation up to 2.0°C. Within this range, both fine and coarse scale analyses of humpback whale distribution suggested local responses to temperature. Notably, the most detailed dataset was available from New Caledonia (774 survey days, 1996–2017), where encounter rates showed a negative relationship to sea surface temperature, but were not related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation or the Antarctic Oscillation from previous summer, a proxy for feeding conditions that may impact breeding patterns. Many breeding sites that are currently occupied are predicted to become unsuitably warm for this species (>28°C) by the end of the 21st century. Based on modeled ecological relationships, there are suitable habitats for relocation in archipelagos and seamounts of southern Oceania. Although distribution shifts might be restrained by philopatry, the apparent plasticity of humpback whale habitat use patterns and the extent of suitable habitats support an adaptive capacity to ocean warming in Oceania breeding grounds.

Abstract. Dinitrogen fixation is now recognized as one of the major sources of bio-available nitrogen in the ocean. Thus, N2 fixation sustains a significant part of the global primary production by supplying the most common limiting nutrient for phytoplankton growth. The “Oligotrophy to UlTra-oligotrophy PACific Experiment” (OUTPACE) improved the data coverage of the western tropical South Pacific, an area recently recognized as a hotspot of N2 fixation. This new development leads us to develop and test an explicit N2 fixation formulation based on the Trichodesmium physiology (the most studied nitrogen fixer) within a 3-D coupled dynamical–biogeochemical model (ROMS-PISCES). We performed a climatological numerical simulation that is able to reproduce the main physical (e.g. sea surface temperature) and biogeochemical patterns (nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations, as well as N2 fixation) in the tropical Pacific. This simulation displayed a Trichodesmium regional distribution that extends from 150∘ E to 120∘ W in the south tropical Pacific, and from 120∘ E to 140∘ W in the north tropical Pacific. The local simulated maximuma were found around islands (Hawaii, Fiji, Samoa, New Caledonia, Vanuatu). We assessed that 15 % of the total primary production may be due to Trichodesmium in the low-nutrient low-chlorophyll regions (LNLC) of the tropical Pacific. Comparison between our explicit and the often used (in biogeochemical models) implicit parameterization of N2 fixation showed that the latter leads to an underestimation of N2 fixation rates by about 25 % in LNLC regions. Finally, we established that iron fluxes from island sediments control the spatial distribution of Trichodesmium biomasses in the western tropical South Pacific. Note, this last result does not take into account the iron supply from rivers and hydrothermal sources, which may well be of importance in a region known for its strong precipitation rates and volcanic activity.

Abstract. Recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea including marine biogeochemistry were analyzed and compared with earlier published projections. The Baltic Sea, located in northern Europe, is a semi-enclosed, shallow and tide-less sea with seasonal sea ice cover in its northern sub-basins and a long residence time causing oxygen depletion in the bottom water of the southern sub-basins. With the help of dynamical downscaling using a regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, four global Earth System Models were regionalized. As the regional climate model does not include components for the terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, an additional catchment and coupled physical-biogeochemical model for the Baltic Sea were used. In addition to previous scenario simulations, the impact of various water level scenarios was examined as well. The projections suggest higher water temperatures, a shallower mixed layer with sharper thermocline during summer, reduced sea ice cover and intensified mixing in the northern Baltic Sea during winter compared to present climate. Both frequency and duration of marine heat waves would increase significantly, in particular in the coastal zone of the southern Baltic Sea (except in regions with frequent upwelling). Due to the uncertainties in projections of the regional wind, water cycle and global sea level rise, robust and statistically significant salinity changes cannot be identified. The impact of changing climate on biogeochemical cycling is considerable but in any case smaller than the impact of plausible nutrient input changes. Implementing the proposed Baltic Sea Action Plan, a nutrient input abatement plan for the entire catchment area, would result in a significantly improved ecological status of the Baltic Sea and reduced hypoxic area also in future climate, strengthening the resilience of the Baltic Sea against anticipated future climate change. While our findings about changes in variables of the heat cycle mainly confirm earlier scenario simulations, earlier projections for salinity and biogeochemical cycles differ substantially because of different experimental setups and different bioavailable nutrient input scenarios. During the time in which this paper was prepared, shortly before submission, Christian Dieterich passed away (1964–2021). This sad event marked the end of the life of a distinguished oceanographer and climate scientist who made important contributions to the climate modeling of the Baltic Sea, North Sea and North Atlantic regions.

Abstract. The Baltic Sea, located in northern Europe, is a semi-enclosed, shallow and tideless sea with seasonal sea-ice cover in its northern sub-basins. Its long water residence time contributes to oxygen depletion in the bottom water of its southern sub-basins. In this study, recently performed scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea including marine biogeochemistry were analysed and compared with earlier published projections. Specifically, dynamical downscaling using a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model was used to regionalise four global Earth system models. However, as the regional climate model does not include components representing terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, an additional catchment and a coupled physical–biogeochemical model for the Baltic Sea were included. The scenario simulations take the impact of various global sea level rise scenarios into account. According to the projections, compared to the present climate, higher water temperatures, a shallower mixed layer with a sharper thermocline during summer, less sea-ice cover and greater mixing in the northern Baltic Sea during winter can be expected. Both the frequency and the duration of marine heat waves will increase significantly, in particular in the coastal zone of the southern Baltic Sea (except in regions with frequent upwellings). Nonetheless, due to the uncertainties in the projections regarding regional winds, the water cycle and the global sea level rise, robust and statistically significant salinity changes could not be identified. The impact of a changing climate on biogeochemical cycling is predicted to be considerable but still smaller than that of plausible nutrient input changes. Implementing the proposed Baltic Sea Action Plan, a nutrient input abatement plan for the entire catchment area, would result in a significantly improved ecological status of the Baltic Sea, including reductions in the size of the hypoxic area also in a future climate, which in turn would increase the resilience of the Baltic Sea against anticipated climate change. While our findings regarding changes in heat-cycle variables mainly confirm earlier scenario simulations, they differ substantially from earlier projections of salinity and biogeochemical cycles, due to differences in experimental setups and in input scenarios for bioavailable nutrients.

too far eastward 11,12 . Forcing a high-resolution atmospheric model with those biased boundary conditions induces systematic biases on the simulated TC climatology, and probably hampers the future projections 13,14 . A commonly-used strategy to alleviate this shortcoming is to prescribe "climate change anomalies", i.e. atmospheric simulations are forced by observed present-day SSTs, onto which the anomalous ensemble mean sea surface warming pattern from CMIP5 projections is added 15 . This approach is sometimes referred to as pseudo-global warming (PGW) downscaling, although this term was also used to describe the application of more ad-hoc anomalies 16 . Strong uncertainties in regional projections of future TC activity also arise from the various projected SST warming patterns for a given scenario in the CMIP database 17-21 . For instance, Murakami et al. 18 showed a significant variation in future TC number per basin depending on the CMIP3 SST pattern used. This raises the issue of the sensitivity of TC projections to the projected SST change does not correct.Using a multi-model ensemble mean projected SST change as the one displayed in Fig. 1e reduces the projected SST errors as it largely cancels the model-dependent part of the errors 22 . Applying the PGW approach with the multi-model ensemble mean projected SST change therefore improves the reliability of projections. This method however does not correct for the systematic biases (i.e. common to all models) in the SST response to anthropogenic forcing. A way to circumvent this issue is to correct the projected warming using a statistical Scientific RepoRtS | (2020) 10:4838 | https://doi.