Experiences of co‐producing sub‐seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana

Hirons, Linda; Wainwright, Caroline M.; Nying’uro, Patricia; Quaye, David; Ashong, Jesse; Kiptum, Chris; Opoku, Nana Kofi; Thompson, Elisabeth Morgan; Lamptey, Benjamin

doi:10.1002/wea.4381

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 8 publications

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“…Such an approach shifts the user, in this context the conservation practitioner, from a recipient of forecast information to a participant in the knowledge and service generation process (Vincent et al, 2020), for instance, drawing on conservation practitioners' understanding of species' ecology to define relevant forecast thresholds and early actions, thereby increasing the likelihood that bespoke forecast information is 'useful, usable and used' (Boaz & Hayden, 2002;Hirons et al, 2021). For example, this could involve user-directed iterations to the visualisation, communication or content of forecasts (Gudoshava et al, 2022;Hirons et al, 2023;Lawal et al, 2021) or applying user-defined thresholds for specific decisionmaking applications (Dione et al, 2022). However, it is also increasingly clear that the iterative co-production process itself is extremely resource intensive (Hirons et al, 2021) and to be effective, stakeholder engagement, monitoring and evaluation need to be institutionalised as the operational norm (Visman et al, 2022).…”

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confidence: 99%

The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

Black,

Boult,

Hirons

et al. 2024

Meteorological Applications

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This study investigates meteorological drought in sub‐Saharan Africa within the context of elephant conservation. Prolonged drought significantly impacts elephants, leading to increased mortality rates and heightened human–elephant conflicts. We assess both the anticipated 21st century changes in impact‐relevant meteorological drought metrics and the efficacy of existing forecasting systems in predicting such droughts on seasonal time scales. The climate change element of our study uses the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) ensemble to evaluate projected change in 3‐month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3). We then carry out a quantitative assessment of seasonal forecast skill, utilizing 110 years of precipitation hindcasts generated by the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) system. Our findings indicate that persistent drought is projected to become more frequent over the 21st century in southern Africa, where the majority of elephants reside. Analysis of seasonal hindcasts indicates that, while the forecasts have greater skill than climatology, they remain highly uncertain. Previous work suggests that it may be possible to reduce this uncertainty by contextualizing forecasts within specific climate regimes. However, even with improved forecast skill, effective action hinges on the alignment of forecasts with the practical needs of conservation practitioners. Over the next decades, a co‐production approach will be critical for leveraging seasonal forecasts for climate change adaptation within the conservation sector.

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Section: (Correct Negatives)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

Black,

Boult,

Hirons

et al. 2024

Meteorological Applications

Self Cite

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Strengthening weather forecast and dissemination capabilities in Central Africa: Case assessment of intense flooding in January 2020

Moudi Pascal,

Kammalac Jores,

Talib

et al. 2023

Climate Services

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Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

Gudoshava,

Otieno,

Koech

et al. 2024

Front. Clim.

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The Greater Horn of Africa is prone to extreme climatic conditions, thus, making climate services increasingly important in supporting decision-making processes across a range of climate sensitive sectors. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the recent advances, gaps and challenges in the provision of climate services over the region, for each of the components of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The study explores various milestones that have been achieved toward climate service delivery. The achievements include improvement of station network coverage, and enhancing the capacity of member states to utilize various tools in data analysis and generate routine climate products. The advancement in science, and availability of High-Performance Computing has made it possible for forecast information to be provided from nowcasting to seasonal timescales. Moreover, operationalizing of the objective forecasting method for monthly and seasonal forecasts has made it possible to translate tercile forecasts for applications models. Additionally, innovative approaches to user engagement through co-production, communication channels, user-friendly interfaces, and dissemination of climate information have also been developed. Despite the significant progress that has been made in the provision of climate services, there are still many challenges and gaps that need to be overcome in order to ensure that these services are effectively meeting the needs of users. The research of the science underpinning climate variability, capacity building and stakeholder engagement, as well as improved data management and quality control processes are some of the gaps that exist over the region. Additionally, communication and dissemination of climate information, including timely warnings and risk communication, require improvement to reach diverse user groups effectively. Addressing these challenges will require strengthened partnerships, increased investment in capacity building, enhanced collaboration between the climate information producers and stakeholders, and the development of user-friendly climate products. Bridging these gaps will foster greater resilience to climate-related hazards and disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa and support sustainable development in the region.

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Experiences of co‐producing sub‐seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

Strengthening weather forecast and dissemination capabilities in Central Africa: Case assessment of intense flooding in January 2020

Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

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