The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

Abstract

This study investigates meteorological drought in sub‐Saharan Africa within the context of elephant conservation. Prolonged drought significantly impacts elephants, leading to increased mortality rates and heightened human–elephant conflicts. We assess both the anticipated 21st century changes in impact‐relevant meteorological drought metrics and the efficacy of existing forecasting systems in predicting such droughts on seasonal time scales. The climate change element of our study uses the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) ensemble to evaluate projected change in 3‐month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3). We then carry out a quantitative assessment of seasonal forecast skill, utilizing 110 years of precipitation hindcasts generated by the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) system. Our findings indicate that persistent drought is projected to become more frequent over the 21st century in southern Africa, where the majority of elephants reside. Analysis of seasonal hindcasts indicates that, while the forecasts have greater skill than climatology, they remain highly uncertain. Previous work suggests that it may be possible to reduce this uncertainty by contextualizing forecasts within specific climate regimes. However, even with improved forecast skill, effective action hinges on the alignment of forecasts with the practical needs of conservation practitioners. Over the next decades, a co‐production approach will be critical for leveraging seasonal forecasts for climate change adaptation within the conservation sector.

A computationally light-weight model for ensemble forecasting of environmental hazard: General TAMSAT-ALERT v1.2.1

“…In 2020, the START Network commissioned the TAMSAT group to develop a new drought monitoring service for Punjab and Sindh, which unlike 250 existing services, targets the secondary winter growing season. The development of the drought monitoring system necessitated extending the TAMSAT-ALERT method from soil moisture in Africa to NDVI in Pakistan (Black et al 2024). Index and Vegetation Health Index.…”

“…Previous work on the TAMSAT-ALERT method has described how the system can be used for agricultural and drought forecasting (Asfaw et al 2018;Boult et al 2020, Black et al 2024 and to short term decision support (Black et al 2023).…”

“…Although originally designed for application in Africa, there have been applications in Guyana (David 2023) and Pakistan (Black et al 2024). A similar approach is used for the FEWSNET drought outlooks (Shukla et al 2014, Turner et al 2022 and for precipitation predictions within the seasonal performance probability tool (Novella and Thiaw 2016).…”