Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

Abstract

The Greater Horn of Africa is prone to extreme climatic conditions, thus, making climate services increasingly important in supporting decision-making processes across a range of climate sensitive sectors. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the recent advances, gaps and challenges in the provision of climate services over the region, for each of the components of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The study explores various milestones that have been achieved toward climate service delivery. The achievements include improvement of station network coverage, and enhancing the capacity of member states to utilize various tools in data analysis and generate routine climate products. The advancement in science, and availability of High-Performance Computing has made it possible for forecast information to be provided from nowcasting to seasonal timescales. Moreover, operationalizing of the objective forecasting method for monthly and seasonal forecasts has made it possible to translate tercile forecasts for applications models. Additionally, innovative approaches to user engagement through co-production, communication channels, user-friendly interfaces, and dissemination of climate information have also been developed. Despite the significant progress that has been made in the provision of climate services, there are still many challenges and gaps that need to be overcome in order to ensure that these services are effectively meeting the needs of users. The research of the science underpinning climate variability, capacity building and stakeholder engagement, as well as improved data management and quality control processes are some of the gaps that exist over the region. Additionally, communication and dissemination of climate information, including timely warnings and risk communication, require improvement to reach diverse user groups effectively. Addressing these challenges will require strengthened partnerships, increased investment in capacity building, enhanced collaboration between the climate information producers and stakeholders, and the development of user-friendly climate products. Bridging these gaps will foster greater resilience to climate-related hazards and disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa and support sustainable development in the region.

Implications of WRF model resolutions on resolving rainfall variability with topography over East Africa

“…Currently, the respective national institutions in Kenya, Rwanda, and Ethiopia produce dynamically downscaled forecasts at 4 km using the WRF model, with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) generating the regional products over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) at 10 km (Gudoshava et al, 2024). There is still a need to improve the current operational setups since they fall within the "grayzone, " the scales with uncertainties in parameterizing convection (Skamarock et al, 2019).…”