Event tree analysis for flood protection—An exploratory study in Finland

Rosqvist, Tony; Molarius, Riitta; Virta, Hanna; Perrels, Adriaan

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2012.11.013

Cited by 22 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Qualitative information is provided for each cell and colours correspond to the degree of fulfilment of the criteria:bold = very suitable;italics = suitable but with limitations;bolditalics = not suitable. (Sandri et al, 2014;Rosqvist et al, 2013;Marzocchi et al, 2012;Lacasse et al, 2008;;Neri et al, 2008;Peila and Guardini, 2008;Frieser, 2004) Hybrid Hybrid model under cross-sectoral assessment should only be bold.…”

Section: Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Event and fault trees (EFTs) methodologies have found wide applications in the field of safety engineering, dealing with causes of infrastructure failures and the best ways to reduce them (Ruijters and Stoelinga, 2015;Rosqvist et al, 2013;Clifton and Ericson, 2005). Fault trees have been used to trace the events that can contribute to an accident or failure, while event trees consider the consequences due to an accident, hence the identification of mitigation strategies (Sebastiaan et al, 2012).…”

Section: General Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Terzi

Torresan

Schneiderbauer

et al. 2019

Journal of Environmental Management

141

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Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on our society, the economy and the environment. According to future scenarios, mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, including changes in the water cycle (e.g. rainfall extremes, melting of glaciers, river runoff), loss of biodiversity and ecosystems services, damages to local economy (drinking water supply, hydropower generation, agricultural suitability) and human safety (risks of natural hazards). This is due to their exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. temperature regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. mountain species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). These characteristics call for the application of risk assessment methodologies able to describe the complex interactions among multiple hazards, biophysical and socioeconomic systems, towards climate change adaptation. Current approaches used to assess climate change risks often address individual risks separately and do not fulfil a comprehensive representation of cumulative effects associated to different hazards (i.e. compound events). Moreover, pioneering multi-layer single risk assessment (i.e. overlapping of single-risk assessments addressing different hazards) is still widely used, causing misleading evaluations of multi-risk processes. This raises key questions about the distinctive features of multi-risk assessments and the available tools and methods to address them. Here we present a review of five cutting-edge modelling approaches (Bayesian networks, agent-based models, system dynamic models, event and fault trees, and hybrid models), exploring their potential applications for multi-risk assessment and climate change adaptation in mountain regions. The comparative analysis sheds light on advantages and limitations of each approach, providing a roadmap for methodological and technical implementation of multi-risk assessment according to distinguished criteria (e.g. spatial and temporal dynamics, uncertainty management, cross-sectoral assessment, adaptation measures integration, data required and level of complexity). The results show limited applications of the selected methodologies in addressing the climate and risks challenge in mountain environments. In particular, system dynamic and hybrid models demonstrate higher potential for further applications to represent climate change effects on multi-risk processes for an effective implementation of climate adaptation strategies.

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Section: Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: General Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Terzi

Torresan

Schneiderbauer

et al. 2019

Journal of Environmental Management

141

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Among them, event tree analysis is quite common, and can assess a wide range of potential combinations of plausible events that may lead to failure or mission disruption (Bowles and Chauhan, 2003;Castillo-Rodríguez et al, 2014;Rosqvist et al, 2013). Event trees can be represented in a compact form through influence diagrams.…”

Section: Methods and Tools For Dam And Levee Safety Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam–levee systems

Castillo-Rodríguez

Needham

Morales-Torres³

et al. 2017

Structure and Infrastructure Engineering

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A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam-levee systems ABSTRACTIn many areas of the world, dams and levees are built to reduce the likelihood of flooding. However, if they fail, the result can be catastrophic flooding beyond what would happen if they did not exist. Therefore, understanding the risk reduced by the dam or levee, as well as any risk imposed by these flood defences is of high importance when determining the appropriate risk reduction investment strategy. This paper describes an approach for quantifying and analysing risk for complex dam-levee systems, and its application to a real case study. The basis behind such approach rely on the potential of event tree modelling to analyse risk from multiple combinations of "load-system response-consequence" events, tested by the authors for a real case study. The combined approach shows how the contribution to system risk of each sub-system can be assessed. It also describes how decisions on risk mitigation measures, at the individual asset scale, can and should be informed in terms of how they impact the overall system risk.

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“…Because of the tree structure, it is possible to assign probabilities to these outcomes. This method has been used to model weather-induced event chains [28][29][30].…”

Section: Event Tree Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…ETA appears to be a straightforward method for modelling the direct consequences of the impact chains of weather events. It is recommended that the method is used in two stages: firstly, the risk analysis team specifies the generic event tree model including its main branches, and secondly, sector-specific experts are asked to complete it by providing probabilities for each alternative branch [30]. ETA was utilised for flood risk management [30] and electricity infrastructure adaptation to snow storm effects [56].…”

Section: Event Tree Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Tools and Methods for Supporting Regional Decision-Making in Relation to Climate Risks

Hanski¹,

Keränen²,

Molarius³

2019

Climate Change and Global Warming

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Climate change has had a major impact on the Nordic region. For example, the mean temperature rise is expected to be 4-6°C by 2080. In Finland, the regional authorities are responsible for climate change adaptation. Some of the most vulnerable sectors include energy, tourism, transport and water supply. Currently, it appears that the authorities are not familiar with the tools for assessing climate risks and lack knowledge about the impact of climate change. In this paper, we provide a review of risk assessment methods and decision-making tools, focusing on adapting to climate change in a Finnish context. Our research method comprises a systematic qualitative literature review dealing with relevant journals, dissertations and deliverables of relevant EU projects since 2005.

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Event tree analysis for flood protection—An exploratory study in Finland

Cited by 22 publications

References 3 publications

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

Multi-risk assessment in mountain regions: A review of modelling approaches for climate change adaptation

A combined risk analysis approach for complex dam–levee systems

Tools and Methods for Supporting Regional Decision-Making in Relation to Climate Risks

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