Evaluation of the performance of meteorological forest fire indices for German federal states

Holsten, Anne; Dominic, Anto; Costa, Luís; Kropp, Jürgen P.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.08.035

Cited by 57 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 22 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…Forest fires are another factor to be considered. This is especially relevant for the more continental and dry eastern part of Germany and the Harz-Mountains where forest fires occur more frequent and forest fire danger indices are on average higher than elsewhere in our study area (Kaulfuß, 2015;Holsten et al, 2013). Thus, a local component cannot be excluded for high values at these spots.…”

Section: Possible Pah Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…BbF and BaP, and in the mineral soil also for IcdP (S-3). On the long-term, the more frequent forest fires in eastern Germany could have impacted the PAH fingerprints in this region (Kaulfuß, 2015;Holsten et al, 2013). Further, the degree of industrialization and population density which -besides Berlin-is relatively low in this area (reflected by the generally low PAH concentrations; Fig.…”

Section: Possible Pah Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 98%

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Regionalized concentrations and fingerprints of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in German forest soils

Aichner

Bussian

Lehnik-Habrink

et al. 2015

Environmental Pollution

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Section: Possible Pah Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 83%

Section: Possible Pah Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 98%

Regionalized concentrations and fingerprints of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in German forest soils

Aichner

Bussian

Lehnik-Habrink

et al. 2015

Environmental Pollution

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“…Several indices have been developed to summarise relevant weather variables into one figure (Holsten et al, 2013). In Europe, the most commonly used index is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (Van Wagner, 1987).…”

Section: Disturbancesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

Lindner

Fitzgerald

Zimmermann

et al. 2014

Journal of Environmental Management

511

355

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The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support.

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“…The use of FDIs to estimate the fire occurrence and fuel interaction has also been performed in different ecosystems in North America [68,69] and Europe [70][71][72][73]. However, these studies have used the alternative dataset of fire counts from satellites or field observations with few efforts in considering the sensitivity to BA datasets or the use of FDIs specific to represent the hydrological processes for each vegetation type [74].…”

Section: Sensitivity Of the Seasonal Fdi/ba Relationship To Ba Datasetsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial Pattern of the Seasonal Drought/Burned Area Relationship across Brazilian Biomes: Sensitivity to Drought Metrics and Global Remote-Sensing Fire Products

Nogueira

Rambal

Barbosa

et al. 2017

Climate

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Fires are complex processes having important impacts on biosphere/atmosphere interactions. The spatial and temporal pattern of fire activity is determined by complex feedbacks between climate and plant functioning through and biomass desiccation, usually estimated by fire danger indices (FDI) in official fire risk prevention services. Contrasted vegetation types from fire-prone Brazilian biomes may respond differently to soil water deficit during the fire season. Then, we propose to evaluate the burned area (BA)/FDI relationship across Brazil using most common FDIs and the main BA products from global remote sensing. We computed 12 standard FDIs-at 0.5 • resolution from 2002 to 2011 and used the monthly BA from four BA datasets-from the MODIS sensor (MCD45A1), the MERIS sensor (MERIS FIRE_CCI), the Global Fire Emission Database version 4 (GFED4) and version 4s including small fires (GFED4s). We performed a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on the coefficients of determination (R 2 ) of the FDI/BA relationship to investigate the biome specificities of Brazilian biomes and the sensitivity to BA datasets. Good relationships (R 2 > 0.8) were observed for all BA datasets, except SPEI (R 2 < 0.2). We showed that FDIs computed from empirical water balances considering a lower soil capacity are more correlated to the seasonal pattern of fire occurrence in the Cerrado biome with contrasted adjustments between the western (early drying) and eastern part (late drying), while the fine fuel moisture index is more correlated to the fire seasonal pattern in Amazonia. The biome specificities of the FDI/BA relationship was evaluated with a general linear model. High accuracies in the biome distribution according to the FDI/BA relationship (>50%, p < 0.001) was observed in Amazonia and Cerrado, with lower accuracy (<32%, p < 0.001) in the Atlantic Forest and Caatinga. These results suggest that the FDI/BA relationship are biome-specific to explain the seasonal course of burned in Brazilian biomes, independently of the global BA product used. Selected FDIs should be used for fire danger forecast in each Brazilian biome.

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Evaluation of the performance of meteorological forest fire indices for German federal states

Cited by 57 publications

References 22 publications

Regionalized concentrations and fingerprints of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in German forest soils

Regionalized concentrations and fingerprints of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in German forest soils

Climate change and European forests: What do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

Spatial Pattern of the Seasonal Drought/Burned Area Relationship across Brazilian Biomes: Sensitivity to Drought Metrics and Global Remote-Sensing Fire Products

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