The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support.

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Energy crops offer an opportunity to substantially increase bioenergy resources which can replace rapidly depleting fossil fuel reserves and mitigate the effect of climate change. Energy crops are typically established within traditional agricultural systems such as tillage land or grassland. Associated land use conversion has environmental implications. The aim of this paper is to propose a framework to examine how such environmental implications can be assessed, based on (a) a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) approach which considers potential impacts at different stages of a plan across a wide range of environmental receptors and (b) a literature review. The example we used was that of Miscanthus replacing grassland farming. This scenario is particularly relevant to Ireland, where over 90% of the agricultural land is permanent pasture, but is also applicable to grassland conversion throughout Europe and the United States. Two consecutive phases of land-use change were identified for assessment, each with a distinct set of environmental impacts. The first was a transition phase, lasting from initial livestock clearance and grassland ploughing until the Miscanthus crop became established (2-3 years). The second phase was the mature crop phase, lasting up to 25 years. Miscanthus cultivation was more likely to impact negatively on the environment during the transition phase than the mature phase, primarily due to abrupt disturbance and the time required for a new equilibrium to establish. However, a literature review of the impact on the environmental receptors revealed that replacing Irish agricultural grassland with Miscanthus had the potential to improve biodiversity, water, air and soil quality, and climatic factors once the crop became established and reached maturity. In order to confirm these findings an appropriate monitoring programme involving objectives and indicators associated with each environmental receptor would need to be developed.

A dairy cow system simulator, Dairy_sim, designed for assessing the interaction of climate and management on dairy cow production, based on rotational grass grazing, was further developed by integrating a soil water model. The soil water model was based on the concept of soil water deficits, and influenced the growth of grass herbage in the simulator when there was an excess of water over field capacity and when water content in the soil was approaching wilting point. The soil water model was tested using baseline meteorological data ) and then the system simulation was parameterized and tested for poorly drained soils using data from a research farm in the west of Ireland. After testing, the effects of regional differences in climate on system management on well-and poorly drained soils were compared. Down-scaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data for the baseline years were used for this purpose. These data resulted in slightly more favourable weather than that recorded. It was found that the simulator was capable of generating results in good agreement with published data for dairy production on poorly drained soils. The regional analysis showed dairy farms on well-drained soils outperformed their equivalents on poorly drained soils and, in general, were able to sustain higher stocking rates by 0AE6-0AE9 cows ha )1 . Dry matter production was around 1AE5-3 t ha )1 greater per annum on well-drained soils compared to poorly drained soils. The simulator, Dairy_sim, also captured a large difference in the requirement for housing and forage between the well and poorly drained soils. The simulation model can now be used to evaluate interactions between soils, systems and weather, and is thus a more useful tool for developing practical advice and for evaluating the impacts of possible climate change.

A dairy system simulator, Dairy_sim, was designed to assess the interactions between climate and management in spring-calving milk production systems based on the grazing of grass pastures. The simulator comprises three main components: a grass herbage growth model, an intake and grazing behaviour model, and a nutrient demand model. The simulator was initially parameterized using the Irish National Dairy Blueprint. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the simulator was most sensitive to stocking rate, milk output per cow and nitrogen fertilizer inputs, but less sensitive to other variables. Field data from four grazing systems were used to test the simulator and it was concluded that Dairy_sim was suitable for evaluating the interaction of climate and management for rotational grazing dairy systems based on perennial ryegrass pastures with Friesian cows. The simulator, Dairy_sim, was then used to evaluate the effects of the regional climates of Ireland on system management. The results indicated that, between regions, herbage production at the same input of nitrogen may vary proportionally by 0AE10 and that the length of the grazing season may vary by 0AE25. It was concluded that the simulator could be a useful tool for developing region-specific dairy production blueprints.

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Renewable energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets are driving an acceleration in the use of bioenergy resources. The environmental impact of national and regional development plans must be assessed in compliance with the EU Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Directive (2001/42/EC). Here, we quantify the environmental impact of an Irish Government bioenergy plan to replace 30% of peat used in three peat-burning power stations, located within the midlands region, with biomass. Four plan alternatives for supplying biomass to the power plant were considered in this study: (1) importation of palm kernel shell from south-east Asia, (2) importation of olive cake pellets from Spain and (3) growing either willow or (4) Miscanthus in the vicinity of the power stations. The impact of each alternative on each of the environmental receptors proposed in the SEA Directive was first quantified before the data were normalized on either an Irish, regional or global scale. Positive environmental impacts were very small compared to the negative environmental impacts for each of the plan alternatives considered. Comparison of normalized indicator values confirmed that the adverse environmental consequences of each plan alternative are concentrated at the location where the biomass is produced. The analysis showed that the adverse environmental consequences of biomass importation are substantially greater than those associated with the use of willow and Miscanthus grown on former grassland. The use of olive cake pellets had a greater adverse environmental effect compared to the use of peat whereas replacement of peat with either willow or Miscanthus feedstocks led to a substantial reduction in environmental pressure. The proposed assessment framework combines the scope of SEA with the quantitative benefits of life cycle assessment and can be used to evaluate the environmental consequences of bioenergy plans.