Over the last decade, Drosophila suzukii Matsumura, an invasive pest of soft-skinned fruits, gradually established itself in Europe, often resulting in significant economic losses. In 2011, when D. suzukii was first described for Germany, the Julius Kühn Institut (JKI) started a monitoring program in southwest Germany to study the occurrence and activity of the fly. Capture data from late 2011–early 2018 from 100 traps were analyzed for the effect of weather and immediate habitat on trap captures at different times of the year. We identified five phases in the annual population development cycle of D. suzukii. We found that the mild winter of 2013/2014 helped the thorough establishment of D. suzukii in Germany. Habitat types in the immediate vicinity of the trap and local weather conditions had a strong influence on trap captures. Forest borders and hedges were found to provide adequate overwintering shelter for the flies. Trap captures in forests and hedges were generally higher than those of vineyards and orchards, even during the fruiting seasons. Summer capture rates were correlated with the number of heat days and precipitation. We also discuss briefly the limitations of using trap captures as representative of fly density in the field.
Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the life-history strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species’ life-history strategies to temperature.
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