Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Stream Flow in Soan River Basin (Pakistan)

Abstract

The global hydrological cycle is susceptible to climate change (CC), particularly in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan that lack appropriate management of precious freshwater resources. The study aims to evaluate CC impact on stream flow in the Soan River Basin (SRB). The study explores two general circulation models (GCMs), which involve Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 using three metrological stations (Rawalpindi, Islamabad, and Murree) data under two emission scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs), such as RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5. The CNRM-CM5 was selected as an appropriate model due to the higher coefficient of determination (R2) value for future the prediction of early century (2021–2045), mid-century (2046–2070), and late century (2071–2095) with baseline period of 1991–2017. After that, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was utilized to simulate the stream flow of watersheds at the SRB for selected time periods. For both calibration and validation periods, the SWAT model’s performance was estimated based on the coefficient of determination(R2), percent bias (PBIAS), and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The results showed that the average annual precipitation for Rawalpindi, Islamabad, and Murree will be decrease by 43.86 mm, 60.85 mm, and 86.86 mm, respectively, while average annual maximum temperature will be increased by 3.73 °C, 4.12 °C, and 1.33 °C, respectively, and average annual minimum temperature will be increased by 3.59 °C, 3.89 °C, and 2.33 °C, respectively, in early to late century under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5. Consequently, the average annual stream flow will be decreased in the future. According to the results, we found that it is possible to assess how CC will affect small water regions in the RCPs using small scale climate projections.

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“…On the other hand, water scarcity and food demand are increasing corresponding to an increase in the population of the country [2][3][4]. Currently, Pakistan is ranked 12th among the most vulnerable countries where agriculture and water resource sectors are significantly influenced by climate change (CC) and it is projected that underdeveloped countries like Pakistan will experience more severe effects on these sectors in upcoming decades [5][6][7]. In these perspectives, climatesmart adaptation strategies are necessary for sustainability in the agriculture sector in terms of food security [8].…”

“…Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) is the largest component and source of irrigation. However, irrigation system in Pakistan is facing major challenges like depleting water reserves, canal water losses, inappropriate water management practices, and lack of access to modern techniques, thereby reducing crop yields [7,15,16]. Different kinds of irrigation systems like sprinklers and drips are being employed worldwide.…”

Basin-Scale Streamflow Projections for Greater Pamba River Basin, India Integrating GCM Ensemble Modelling and Flow Accumulation-Weighted LULC Overlay in Deep Learning Environment

“…Therefore, the influence of climate on streamflow should be seen and measured on multiple timescales. There are a lot of studies incorporating significant climate models for streamflow projection [17,18]. Climate models project temperature rises and changes on the spatio-temporal patterns of precipitation occurrences and amounts [19,20] globally for the upcoming century.…”