Hydrological Responses to Climate Change and Land-Use Dynamics in Central Asia's Semi-arid Regions: An SWAT Model Analysis of the Tuul River Basin

Dolgorsuren, Shijir-Erdene; Ishgaldan, Byambakhuu; Myagmartseren, Purevtseren; Kumar, Pankaj; Meraj, Gowhar; Singh, Suraj Kumar; Kanga, Shruti; Almazroui, Mansour

doi:10.1007/s41748-023-00367-9

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…Hence, these findings, which illustrate the variability in rainfall patterns across the VMD, offer crucial insights for policymakers, environmental planners, and local communities. By understanding the dynamics of rainfall distribution and its implications on flood frequency and severity, targeted interventions can be developed to enhance flood preparedness and response strategies [95][96][97][98][99][100][101][102]. This is particularly relevant given the observed economic impacts of flooding events, which highlight the urgent need for improved flood loss modeling and risk assessments in the region [102].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Rainfall Distribution Characteristics over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A Comparison between Coastal and Inland Localities

Minh,

Lien,

Hong Ngoc

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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This study examines the changing rainfall patterns in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) utilizing observational data spanning from 1978 to 2022. We employ the Mann–Kendall test, the sequential Mann–Kendall test, and innovative trend analysis to investigate trends in annual, wet, and dry season rainfall, as well as daily rainfall events. Our results show significant spatial variations. Ca Mau, a coastal province, consistently showed higher mean annual and seasonal rainfall compared to the further inland stations of Can Tho and Moc Hoa. Interestingly, Ca Mau experienced a notable decrease in annual rainfall. Conversely, Can Tho, showed an overall decrease in some months of the wet season and an increase in dry season rainfall. Furthermore, Moc Hoa showed an increase in the number of rainy days, especially during the dry season. Principal component analysis (PCA) further revealed strong correlations between annual rainfall and extreme weather events, particularly for Ca Mau, emphasizing the complex interplay of geographic and climatic factors within the region. Our findings offer insights for policymakers and planners, thus aiding the development of targeted interventions to manage water resources and prepare for changing climate conditions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding Rainfall Distribution Characteristics over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A Comparison between Coastal and Inland Localities

Minh,

Lien,

Hong Ngoc

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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“…Assessment of the hydrological response to climate change is an important research field [1,2]. Conventional impact evaluation usually involves the following steps: (1) modeling and predicting climate response under greenhouse gas emission scenarios using atmospheric circulation models (GCMs); (2) post processing/downscaling the output results of GCM; and (3) estimating the impact of climate change on a watershed scale based on hydrological models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The strategy of "multiple working hypotheses" has been widely applied in the research of hydrological model nonstationarity [19,20], including multiple parameter hypotheses and multiple structural hypotheses. There are two main ways to consider multiple model structures: (1) Flexible modular frameworks such as FUSE [15] and SUPERFLEX [21], for which studies have demonstrated that numerous hydrological models developed with varying structures and applicability are composed of universal and similar modules. These modular frameworks have universality and cover a wide range of model components, and therefore can be used to construct and analyze a larger and more diverse set of model structures under different climatic conditions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying and Interpreting Hydrological Model Structural Nonstationarity Using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method

Gui,

Zhang,

Yue

et al. 2024

Water

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Understanding hydrological nonstationarity under climate change is important for runoff prediction and it enables more robust decisions. Regarding the multiple structural hypotheses, this study aims to identify and interpret hydrological structural nonstationarity using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method by (i) constructing a nonstationary model through the Bayesian weighted averaging of two lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff (RR) models (the Xinanjiang and GR4J model) with time-varying weights; and (ii) detecting the temporal variation in the optimized Bayesian weights under climate change conditions. By combining the BMA method with period partition and time sliding windows, the efficacy of adopting time-varying model structures is investigated over three basins located in the U.S. and Australia. The results show that (i) the nonstationary ensemble-averaged model with time-varying weights surpasses both individual models and the ensemble-averaged model with time-invariant weights, improving NSE[Q] from 0.04 to 0.15; (ii) the optimized weights of Xinanjiang model increase and that of GR4J declines with larger precipitation, and vice versa; (iii) the change in the optimized weights is proportional to that of precipitation under monotonic climate change, as otherwise the mechanism changes significantly. Overall, it is recommended to adopt nonstationary structures in hydrological modeling.

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Foundations and Frontiers of Natural Hazard Management in Mountainous Regions

Meraj,

Hashimoto,

Kumar

2024

Disaster Risk Reduction

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Hydrological Responses to Climate Change and Land-Use Dynamics in Central Asia's Semi-arid Regions: An SWAT Model Analysis of the Tuul River Basin

Cited by 7 publications

References 86 publications

Understanding Rainfall Distribution Characteristics over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A Comparison between Coastal and Inland Localities

Understanding Rainfall Distribution Characteristics over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A Comparison between Coastal and Inland Localities

Identifying and Interpreting Hydrological Model Structural Nonstationarity Using the Bayesian Model Averaging Method

Foundations and Frontiers of Natural Hazard Management in Mountainous Regions

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