Evaluating score- and feature-based likelihood ratio models for multivariate continuous data: applied to forensic MDMA comparison

Bolck, Annabel; Ni, Haifang; Lopatka, Martin

doi:10.1093/lpr/mgv009

Cited by 38 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…shown to have limitations [28]). The need for some additional consideration (to the likelihood value that is produced by Snipper for assignments) comes from the fact that self-declaration and genetic composition, while expected to broadly align, are not always the same i.e.…”

Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the South Australian Aboriginal population using the Global AIMs Nano ancestry test

Hopkins

Taylor

Hill

et al. 2019

Forensic Science International: Genetics

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We investigate the ability of the 31 SNP loci in the Global AIMs Nano set to distinguish selfdeclared Australian Aboriginal individuals from European, Oceanic, African, Native American and East Asian populations. Human evolution suggests that Australian Aboriginal individuals came to Australia approximately 50 000 years ago, during the time it made up part of Sahul. Since then the colonisation of Australia by Europeans has meant significant admixture within the Australian Aboriginal population. These two events present themselves in our study with the Aboriginal population creating a continuous genetic cline between the Oceanic and European groups. We also assigned the Aboriginal individuals into their traditional regional groups to determine whether there was any ability to distinguish these from each other. We found similar results to studies using other markers, namely that the more remote regions (that have been less affected by admixture) diverged from the rest. Overall, we found the ability of the GNano system to differentiate self-declared Australian Aboriginal individuals was reasonable but had limitations that need to be recognised if these assignments are applied to unknown individuals.

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Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the South Australian Aboriginal population using the Global AIMs Nano ancestry test

Hopkins

Taylor

Hill

et al. 2019

Forensic Science International: Genetics

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“…Score-based approaches are increasingly popular across multiple branches of forensic science, e.g., [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25]. Quantitative measurements made on objects of interest such as voice recordings, face images, and glass fragments usually result in multivariate data with complex distributions.…”

Section: Score-based Approaches For the Calculation Of Likelihood Ratmentioning

confidence: 99%

Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors

Morrison

Poh

2018

Science & Justice

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A B S T R A C TWhen strength of forensic evidence is quantified using sample data and statistical models, a concern may be raised as to whether the output of a model overestimates the strength of evidence. This is particularly the case when the amount of sample data is small, and hence sampling variability is high. This concern is related to concern about precision. This paper describes, explores, and tests three procedures which shrink the value of the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor toward the neutral value of one. The procedures are: (1) a Bayesian procedure with uninformative priors, (2) use of empirical lower and upper bounds (ELUB), and (3) a novel form of regularized logistic regression. As a benchmark, they are compared with linear discriminant analysis, and in some instances with non-regularized logistic regression. The behaviours of the procedures are explored using Monte Carlo simulated data, and tested on real data from comparisons of voice recordings, face images, and glass fragments.

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“…Therefore, the application of chemometric tools in the 105 forensic science has been gaining importance in recent years [16,17,15,14,18,19,20]. In spite of their usefulness in the field of data mining, outcomes of chemometric tools cannot be directly translated and interpreted for forensic purposes, as they do not always account for all essential aspects listed above (e.g.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Hybrid approach combining chemometrics and likelihood ratio framework for reporting the evidential value of spectra

Martyna

Zadora

Neocleous

et al. 2016

Analytica Chimica Acta

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Hybrid approach combining chemometrics and likelihood ratio framework for reporting the evidential value of spectra. Analytica Chimica Acta, 931, pp. 34-46. (doi:10.1016Acta, 931, pp. 34-46. (doi:10. /j.aca.2016 This is the author's final accepted version.There may be differences between this version and the published version. You are advised to consult the publisher's version if you wish to cite from it.http://eprints.gla.ac.uk/119762/ Chemistry, 3 Ingardena, Poland, 9 Westerplatte, Poland, University of Silesia in Katowice, Institute of Chemistry, Chemometric Research Group, 9 Szkolna, Poland, University of Glasgow, School of Mathematics and Statistics, 15 University Gardens, Glasgow G12 8QW, United Kingdom, Abstract Many chemometric tools are invaluable and have proven effective in data mining and substantial dimensionality reduction of highly multivariate data. This becomes vital for interpreting various physicochemical data due to rapid development of advanced analytical techniques, delivering much information in a single measurement run. This concerns especially spectra, which are frequently used as the subject of comparative analysis in e.g. forensic sciences. In the presented study the microtraces collected from the scenarios of hit-and-run accidents were analysed. Plastic containers and automotive plastics (e.g. bumpers, headlamp lenses) were subjected to Fourier transform infrared spectrometry and car paints were analysed using Raman spectroscopy. In the forensic context analytical results must be interpreted and reported according to the standards of the interpretation schemes acknowledged in forensic sciences using the likelihood ratio approach. However, for proper construction of LR models for highly multivari- * Corresponding authorEmail addresses: rzepecka@chemia.uj.edu.pl (Agnieszka Martyna), gzadora@ies.krakow.pl (Grzegorz Zadora), tereza.neocleous@glasgow.ac.uk (Tereza Neocleous), amichalska@ies.krakow.pl (Aleksandra Michalska), nema.dean@glasgow.ac.uk (Nema Dean) Preprint submitted to Analytica Chimica ActaMarch 25, 2016 ate data, such as spectra, chemometric tools must be employed for substantial data compression. Conversion from classical feature representation to distance representation was proposed for revealing hidden data peculiarities and linear discriminant analysis was further applied for minimising the within-samples variability while maximising the between-samples variability. Both techniques enabled substantial reduction of data dimensionality. Univariate and multivariate likelihood ratio models were proposed for such data. It was shown that the combination of chemometric tools and the likelihood ratio approach is capable of solving the comparison problem of highly multivariate and correlated data after proper extraction of the most relevant features and variance information hidden in the data structure.

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Evaluating score- and feature-based likelihood ratio models for multivariate continuous data: applied to forensic MDMA comparison

Cited by 38 publications

References 28 publications

Analysis of the South Australian Aboriginal population using the Global AIMs Nano ancestry test

Analysis of the South Australian Aboriginal population using the Global AIMs Nano ancestry test

Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors

Hybrid approach combining chemometrics and likelihood ratio framework for reporting the evidential value of spectra

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