Evaluating epidemic intervention policies with systems thinking: a case study of dengue fever in Mexico

Ritchie‐Dunham, James L.; Galvan, Jorge Fernando Mendez

doi:10.1002/(sici)1099-1727(199922)15:2<119::aid-sdr163>3.0.co;2-g

Cited by 34 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Given the difficulty of estimating the number of Culicoides placed in a specific location, several epidemiological works assume an initial ratio of mosquitoes or midges instead [ 47 , 48 ]. In our case, the number density of Culicoides transported by particle i situated in Γ s at step n was assumed to be proportional to the Culicoides activity function, δ (.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

et al. 2018

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This work develops a methodology for estimating risk of wind-borne introduction of flying insects into a country, identifying areas and periods of high risk of vector-borne diseases incursion. This risk can be characterized by the role of suitable temperatures and wind currents in small insects’ survival and movements, respectively. The model predicts the number density of introduced insects over space and time based on three processes: the advection due to wind currents, the deposition on the ground and the survival due to climatic conditions. Spanish livestock has suffered many bluetongue outbreaks since 2004 and numerous experts point to Culicoides transported by wind from affected areas in North Africa as a possible cause. This work implements numerical experiments simulating the introduction of Culicoides in 2004. The model identified southern and eastern Spain, particularly between June and November, as being at greatest risk of wind-borne Culicoides introduction, which matches field data on bluetongue outbreaks in Spain this year. This validation suggests that this model may be useful for predicting introduction of airborne pathogens of significance to animal productivity.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

et al. 2018

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“…Ecohealth approach provides a thorough overview of the dynamics of dengue problem that can be used to determine the most appropriate intervention. 19 The dynamic factors affecting dengue fever require tool that can describe the problem as a whole. Modeling to describe dengue fever can be done by simulating the system dynamics.…”

Section: -13mentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecohealth System Dynamic Model as a Planning Tool for the Reduction of Breeding Sites

Respati

Raksanagara

Djuhaeni

et al. 2017

IOP Conf. Ser.: Mater. Sci. Eng.

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Abstract.Dengue is still one of major health problem in Indonesia. Dengue transmission is influenced by dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment and climate. The complexity of the disease coupled with limited resources necessitates different approach for prevention methods that include factors contribute to the transmission. One way to prevent the dengue transmission is by reducing the mosquito's breeding sites. Four factors suspected to influence breeding sites are dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment, and weather condition. In order to have an effective program in reducing the breeding site it is needed to have a model which can predict existence of the breeding sites while the four factors under study are controlled. The objective of this study is to develop an Ecohealth model using system dynamic as a planning tool for the reduction of breeding sites to prevent dengue transmission with regard to dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment, and weather condition. The methodology is a mixed method study using sequential exploratory design. The study comprised of 3 stages: first a qualitative study to 14 respondents using in-depth interview and 6 respondents for focus group discussion. The results from the first stage was used to develop entomology and household survey questionnaires for second stage conducted in 2036 households across 12 sub districts in Bandung City. Ecohealth system dynamic model was developed using data from first and second stages. Analyses used are thematic analysis for qualitative data; spatial, generalized estimating equation (GEE) and structural equation modeling for quantitative data; also average mean error (AME) and average variance error (AVE) for dynamic system model validation. System dynamic model showed that the most effective approach to eliminate breeding places was by ensuring the availability of basic sanitation for all houses. Weather factors such as precipitation can be compensated with the eradication of breeding sites activities which is conducted as scheduled and at the same time for the whole areas. Conclusion of this study is that dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, and housing environment contributed to breeding places elimination influenced the existence of the breeding sites. Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd basic sanitation and breeding places eradication program done timely and collectively are the most effective approach to eradicate breeding sites. Ecohealth dynamic system model can be used as a tool for the planning of breeding sites eradication program to prevent disease transmissions at city level.

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“…3 What has evolved over the past decade of application is the set of exercises and analyses used to elicit, understand, and explain them. While the comprehensive, rigorous nature of the questions often overwhelmed clients, their integration provided unique insights.…”

Section: Exhibit 2 Developing the Grasp Questions: Our Learning Expermentioning

confidence: 99%

Strategic Clarity: Actions for Identifying and Correcting Gaps in Mental Models

Ritchie‐Dunham¹,

Puente²

2008

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Evaluating epidemic intervention policies with systems thinking: a case study of dengue fever in Mexico

Cited by 34 publications

References 17 publications

An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

Ecohealth System Dynamic Model as a Planning Tool for the Reduction of Breeding Sites

Strategic Clarity: Actions for Identifying and Correcting Gaps in Mental Models

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