EU and NATO Enlargement: Russia's Expectations, Responses and Options for the Future1

Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements

“…23 Uprisings such as the color revolutions (e.g., in Ukraine) and the Arab Spring (e.g., in Tunisia and Egypt) are, in the Russian view, examples of such actions conducted by Western governments. 24 However, Russia's actions over the past two decades suggest that it values its influence over some former Soviet states more than others. For example, while Russia was concerned about plans for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to accede to NATO during 2002NATO during -2004, it largely acquiesced in the end, yet it has defended its interests in other post-Soviet states with much greater vigor.…”

“…In 1998, President Yeltsin stated that the prospect of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania joining the Alliance constituted a "redline" that the West must not cross. 24 Tallinn, Vilnius, and Riga showed no interest in Yeltsin's proffered alternative of security guarantees if they stayed out of NATO. 25 The Russian government claimed that the disenfranchisement of the Russian population in Estonia and Latvia proved that these countries remained unworthy of NATO and EU membership.…”

“…Seven major bases in Italy, Turkey, Germany, and the United Kingdom are home to fighter, transport, and logistics squadrons. 24 …”

“…23 Andrew E. Kramer, "More of Kremlin's Opponents Are Ending Up Dead," New York Times, August 20, 2016b. ment. 24 Russia's ability to maintain spending on modernizing its strategic nuclear deterrent may be particularly important to watch, given the age of many of these weapons and Russia's heavy reliance on its nuclear deterrent for its security. 25 While Russian capabilities are likely to continue to increase over this period, non-U.S. NATO defense spending has also begun to trend upward for the first time in years, and several key states have credibly pledged that these increases will continue in the years to come.…”

“…29 Russia connected the prospect of NATO enlargement to the amended CFE Treaty. The original treaty had been concluded in 1990 between NATO and the Warsaw Pact and limited the amount, types, and locations of conventional military forces that could be deployed 24 28 Mankoff, 2009, pp. 168-170. 29 Zdzislaw Lachowski, The Adapted CFE Treaty and the Admission of the Baltic States to NATO, Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2002, p. 33. on the continent.…”