This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

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R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest.RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org iii PrefaceThis report documents the findings of the project "Impact of U.S. Military Posture and Operations on the Incidence of Conflict." For this study, the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence (G-2), United States Army, asked RAND to empirically assess how U.S. forward presence affects state and nonstate actor decisions to engage in conflict. The question is critical to informing ongoing debates about the effects of forward U.S. presence on conflict around the globe, as well as debates about the size of forward U.S. presence needed in Europe and in East Asia.We defined the key terms, developed hypotheses on the relationship between U.S. forward presence and incidence of conflict, and then, having constructed the necessary databases, tested our hypotheses using statistical analysis. We also drew out the implications of our findings for contemporary debates about U.S. forward presence. The findings of this report should be of interest to those in the U.S. defense community with an interest in long-term planning and strategy for deployment of U.S. forces. This research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-2, United States Army, and conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army.The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this document is RAN167268. SummaryThere is an ongoing debate about the effect of U.S. presence on conflict around the globe. In one view, U.S. forward presence is stabilizing. It helps to deter adversaries, restrain U.S. partners from adopting provocative policies, and make it easier for the United States to achieve its aims without the use of force. Proponents of this view advocate maintaining and expanding U.S. presence abroad. Another view holds that U.S. forward presence makes conflict more...

Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.

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