Estimation of Random Variable Distribution Parameters by the Monte Carlo Method

Sienkowski, S.

doi:10.2478/mms-2013-0022

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The method helps to solve deterministic and probabilistic tasks by many times repeated random experiments on the input data sample. The method was dealt with by many authors, the works of Knežo, Raychaudhuri, Kuselman et al, Petrík and Blaško, and Sienkowski were used in the paper [33][34][35][36].…”

Section: Monte Carlo Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of FTA Analysis for Calculation of the Probability of the Failure of the Pressure Leaching Process

et al. 2021

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European Union legislation requires organizations to assess their processes in the context of risk management. The main task of risk management is to manage all risks that can significantly affect the outcome of processes. The article is focused on risk evaluation in pressure leaching at elevated temperature using the method Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). The effectivity of pyrite and arsenic pyrite decomposition by oxidative pressure leaching is influenced by the duration of the process, by the temperature, concentration of the leaching solution and by a density of the slurry. It was found that, under equitable conditions, the arsenic pyrite decomposes more intensely than pyrite. Under laboratory conditions, leaching is performed in an autoclave. Due to the aggressive environment, increased pressure and temperature, process failure is possible. Its probability was calculated by FTA. It has been found that the probability of the top event in the examined process was disproportionately high (0.057) and represents an invitation to take corrective actions. The Monte Carlo method was used for the simulation of the effect the probability of basic events on the probability of the top event—the failure of the leaching process.

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Section: Monte Carlo Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of FTA Analysis for Calculation of the Probability of the Failure of the Pressure Leaching Process

et al. 2021

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“…The Monte Carlo method was used for the evaluation of the stability of used model, i. e. how will the value of the fluidity, calculated by equation ( 1) change, if the input data will be given in the form of interval and the experiment would be repeated several times. Sienkowski [16] describes the Monte Carlo method or probability simulation as a technique used to understand the impact of risk and uncertainty in forecasting models. The key feature of a Monte Carlo simulation is that it can tell youbased on how you create the ranges of estimates -how likely the resulting outcomes are.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Archives of Metallurgy and Materials

Futáš¹,

Petrík²,

Pribulová³

et al. 2018

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The purpose of this study is to identify relationships between the values of the fluidity obtained by computer simulation and by an experimental test in the horizontal three-channel mould designed in accordance with the Measurement Systems Analysis. Al-Si alloy was a model material. The factors affecting the fluidity varied in following ranges: Si content 5 wt.% -12 wt.%, Fe content 0.15 wt.% -0.3wt. %, the pouring temperature 605°C-830°C, and the pouring speed 100 g • s -1 -400 g • s -1 . The software NovaFlow&Solid was used for simulations. The statistically significant difference between the value of fluidity calculated by the equation and obtained by experiment was not found. This design simplifies the calculation of the capability of the measurement process of the fluidity with full replacement of experiments by calculation, using regression equation.

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“…Sienkowski [27] describes the Monte Carlo method or probability simulation as a technique used to understand the effects of risks and uncertainties in forecasting models. The main feature of a Monte Carlo simulation is that, depending on how one specifies the ranges of estimates, it can tell how likely the resulting outcomes are.…”

Section: %Av =mentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation Models in a Fluidity Test of the Al-Si Alloy

Šolc,

Blaško,

Petrík

et al. 2024

Metals

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The goal of the fluidity test is to evaluate the ability of the melt to fill the cavity of the mold, which is one of the factors affecting the final quality of the castings. It is a technological test that is basically not standardized, therefore it is realized in different forms, for example using “horizontal” and “vertical” molds. The “horizontal” mold makes it easier to fulfill the condition of repeatability, therefore it was used to calculate the capability of the test by the Measurement Systems Analysis (MSA) method. The results of the tests in both molds were used to calculate regression equations that allow the fluidity to be determined with strong reliability based on variables such as melt temperature, casting speed, and mold temperature. In addition, the effects of input data variability (uncertainty) on the resulting fluidity value were analyzed using regression equations and the Monte Carlo simulation. The contribution of the article is the analysis of the capability of the measurement process of the fluidity and a prediction of the results of its tests using the Monte Carlo simulation method.

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Estimation of Random Variable Distribution Parameters by the Monte Carlo Method

Cited by 6 publications

References 22 publications

Application of FTA Analysis for Calculation of the Probability of the Failure of the Pressure Leaching Process

Application of FTA Analysis for Calculation of the Probability of the Failure of the Pressure Leaching Process

Archives of Metallurgy and Materials

Simulation Models in a Fluidity Test of the Al-Si Alloy

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