Estimation of health hazards resulting from a radiological terrorist attack in a city

Abstract

In recent years, the concern for protection of urban populations against terror attacks involving radiological, biological or chemical substances has attracted increasing attention. It sets new demands to decision support and consequence assessment tools, where the focus has traditionally been on accidental exposure. The aim of the present study was to illustrate issues that need to be considered in evaluating the radiological consequences of a 'dirty bomb' explosion. This is done through a worked example of simplified calculations of relative dose contributions for a specific 'dirty bomb' scenario leading to atmospheric dispersion of 90Sr contamination over a city area. Also, the requirements of atmospheric dispersion models for such scenarios are discussed.

Modelling remediation options for urban contamination situations

“…For instance, some plausible scenarios involving malicious dispersion of radionuclides would generate large particles that would be comparatively easy to remove from impermeable surfaces (Andersson et al, 2008b).…”

Challenges for Physics-Based Models of a Radionuclide Dispersal Device

“…The threat of deliberate dispersal of radioactive materials in an urban environment has received considerable attention in the wake of the September 11 attacks in 2001 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. A radiological dispersal device (RDD) is one of many conceivable ways in which radioactive material could be maliciously dispersed and exposed to the general public [6].…”

“…Even if the direct health effects from radiation exposure will be minimal, the costs associated with the potential disruption and remediation will be considerable [10]. This provides strong motivation for developing accurate and detailed models to assist nuclear emergency stewards and first responders in properly assessing and planning emergency response strategies [2,5].…”

“…Various aspects of an RDD attack have been already studied both computationally [5,6,[11][12][13] and experimentally [14][15][16]. As pointed out by Magill et al [8], to estimate the consequences of an RDD attack, "one needs to quantify the type of radioactive material (the source term) and to model the dispersion under the meteorological conditions at the time of the detonation".…”

Requirements for estimation of doses from contaminants dispersed by a ‘dirty bomb’ explosion in an urban area

“…Here consequence assessment models can be highly valuable. Simplified calculations have indicated that at least under some circumstances, a well-staged 'dirty bomb' attack could over several kilometres distance result in significant exposure from dispersed contaminants (Andersson et al, 2008b).…”