Estimating exceedance frequencies of extreme river discharges using statistical methods and physically based approach

Chbab, E.H.; Buiteveld, Hendrik; Diermanse, Ferdinand

doi:10.1007/bf03165682

Cited by 11 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…This is because focus is not on the comparison of different statistical methods which probably induce as much uncertainty in design discharges as measurements (Chbab et al, 2006;Merz and Thieken, 2009), but on extending data records and to assess non-stationarity with this data. The choice for the GEV distribution was based on previous studies (e.g., Chbab Moreover, the three-parameter GEV distribution is capable of flattening-off at extreme values (introducing an upper bound; Guse et al, 2010) by having a flexible tail, induced by the shape parameter.…”

Section: Generalised Extreme Value (Gev) Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Present estimates of the magnitude of Q 1250 of the Lower Rhine yield relatively large uncertainties (Chbab et al, 2006;te Linde et al, 2010). Estimates of Q 1250 are based on extrapolation of discharge measurements since AD 1901.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This included analysis of stochastically resampled 20 th century datasets, the use of precipitation generators in combination with run-off models, and Bayesian weighting of different extrapolation methods (Chbab et al, 2006;de Wit and Buishand, 2007;te Linde et al, 2010). Although this maximised the use of existing datasets and created useful scenarios for engineering, these approaches still suffered from difficulties in fundamentally improving the reliability of predicted discharges of rare high-magnitude events, as they still depended on possibly biased datasets with a too limited length to represent the natural system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Flood frequency analysis and discussion of non-stationarity of the Lower Rhine flooding regime (AD 1350–2011): Using discharge data, water level measurements, and historical records

Toonen

2015

Journal of Hydrology

110

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Section: Generalised Extreme Value (Gev) Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Flood frequency analysis and discussion of non-stationarity of the Lower Rhine flooding regime (AD 1350–2011): Using discharge data, water level measurements, and historical records

Toonen

2015

Journal of Hydrology

110

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“…As these datasets often have a limited length (rarely longer than a century), estimated discharges of extreme floods come with a considerable uncertainty (Klemeš, 2000). To extend discharge data series, recent studies explored resampling of meteorological observations to simulate flood events using coupled rainfall-discharge models (Chbab et al, 2006;te Linde et al, 2010), or considered alternative monitoring stations and water level measurements to reconstruct discharges back to the end of the 18th century (Toonen, 2013a). For a limited number of large floods that occurred before routine measurements started, discharge reconstructions are available that made use of historical and geological palaeoflood stage indicators (Herget and Meurs, 2010;Toonen et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lower Rhine historical flood magnitudes of the last 450years reproduced from grain-size measurements of flood deposits using End Member Modelling

Toonen

Winkels

Cohen

et al. 2015

CATENA

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“…Before the frequency analysis, the homogeneity test of time series was made (Lammersen et al 2002;Chbab et al 2006).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of maximum annual discharges by frequency analysis with four probability distributions in case of non-homogeneous time series (Kazani karst spring in Republic of Macedonia)

Радевски

Gorin

Dimitrovska

et al. 2016

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: Ocena maksimalnih letnih pretokov s frekvenčno analizo s štirimi verjetnostnimi porazdelitvami v primeru nehomogenih časovnih serij (kraški izvir Kazani v Republiki Makedoniji)Običajno uporabljamo v hidrologiji frekvenčno analizo za oceno verjetnosti in velikosti ekstremnih pretokov, še posebej nizkih tokov ali poplavnih značilnosti na določenih merilnih mestih. V članku je predstavljena frekvenčna analiza, ki je bila izvedena na seriji maksimalnih letnih pretokov izmerjenih na merilni postaji na kraškem izviru Kazani v obdobju 51 let . Glede na rezultate testa kumulativnih odklonov (q = 1,531) in testa SNHT ( = 10,543) je časovna serija nehomogena. Po prilagoditvi letnih maksimalnih pretokov pred letom spremembe (1995) z uporabo programske opreme AnClim je bila izvedena frekvenčna analiza z uporabo štirih verjetnostnih porazdelitev. Dobljeni rezultati kažejo na verjetnost pojava poplav na kraškem izviru za različne povratne dobe. Po izračunu so bile z uporabo grafičnih in statističnih primerjav med empirično in teoretično razporeditvijo podatkov določene porazdelitve z najboljšim ujemanjem. Ker je izvir naravna vrednota in pomemben vir za družbo, je zelo pomembno izbrati ustrezno verjetnostno porazdelitev za maksimalne letne pretoke kraškega izvira Kazani. Zato je bila izvedena primerjava z uporabo grafičnih in statističnih testov (KolmogorovSmirnov, χ 2 in Anderson-Darling). Najboljše ujemanje glede na te tri teste je bilo doseženo pri Gumbelovi porazdelitvi z maksimalnim letnim pretokom 4,54 m 3 /s za povratno dobo 10 let, 6,06 m 3 /s za povratno dobo 100 let in 7,56 m 3 /s za povratno dobo 1000 let. Ključne besede: kraški izvir, maksimalni letni pretok, hidrologija, homogenost, frekvenčna analiza. Frequency analysis is usually used in hydrology for the possibility and scale of discharge extremes, especially low flows or flood features of concrete gauge. The paper presents a frequency analysis carried out on a 51 year period series of maximum annual discharge, on Kazani karst spring gauge station. The time series were non-homogenous according to Cumulative deviations test (q = 1.531) and Standard normal homogeneity test ( = 10.543). After adjusting of annual maximum discharges (AMD) before the year of change (1995), with using AnClim software, the frequency analysis was made using four probability distributions. Obtained results show possibility of karst spring flood occurrence for different return periods. After their calculation the best fitting distribution was chosen using graphical and statistical testing between empirical and theoretical data distribution. According to the spring significance for nature and humanity, it was crucial to choose a right probability distribution for annual maximum discharges of Kazani karst spring. Therefore, a comparison using graphical and statistical testing (Kolmogorov-Smirnov, χ 2 and AndersonDarling test) was made. The best fit according to three tests was the Gumbel distribution with AMD of 4.54 m 3 /s for return period of 10 years, 6.06 m 3 /s for return period of...

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Estimating exceedance frequencies of extreme river discharges using statistical methods and physically based approach

Cited by 11 publications

References 8 publications

Flood frequency analysis and discussion of non-stationarity of the Lower Rhine flooding regime (AD 1350–2011): Using discharge data, water level measurements, and historical records

Flood frequency analysis and discussion of non-stationarity of the Lower Rhine flooding regime (AD 1350–2011): Using discharge data, water level measurements, and historical records

Lower Rhine historical flood magnitudes of the last 450years reproduced from grain-size measurements of flood deposits using End Member Modelling

Estimation of maximum annual discharges by frequency analysis with four probability distributions in case of non-homogeneous time series (Kazani karst spring in Republic of Macedonia)

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