Flood frequency analysis and discussion of non-stationarity of the Lower Rhine flooding regime (AD 1350–2011): Using discharge data, water level measurements, and historical records

Toonen, W.H.J.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.014

Cited by 41 publications

(119 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…1), where discharge data and additional discharge reconstructions are available since AD 1772 (Toonen, 2013a). A scour hole named Zwarte Gat (ZG), formed during the flood of AD 1644 (Buisman, 2000), is located~25 km downstream of Lobith.…”

Section: Research Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Known large floods of the last five centuries (Buisman, 2000(Buisman, , 2006Herget and Meurs, 2010;Toonen, 2013a) should correspond with the coarsest flood beds in the cores.…”

Section: Age-depth Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, the four largest events were selected from historical records, identified by numerous dike breaches and a regional impact of flooding (AD 1595(AD , 1658(AD , 1809(AD , and 1861Buisman, 2000Buisman, , 2006Toonen, 2013a). Starting with the coarsest imprint in the sedimentary record, spikes were correlated with historical events, using the initial age-depth model as a reference for approximate age -correlations were only considered plausible if historical records corresponded with suggested age-depth modelled ages (generally within a decade).…”

Section: Age-depth Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As these datasets often have a limited length (rarely longer than a century), estimated discharges of extreme floods come with a considerable uncertainty (Klemeš, 2000). To extend discharge data series, recent studies explored resampling of meteorological observations to simulate flood events using coupled rainfall-discharge models (Chbab et al, 2006;te Linde et al, 2010), or considered alternative monitoring stations and water level measurements to reconstruct discharges back to the end of the 18th century (Toonen, 2013a). For a limited number of large floods that occurred before routine measurements started, discharge reconstructions are available that made use of historical and geological palaeoflood stage indicators (Herget and Meurs, 2010;Toonen et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The top part of the deposits accumulated during the period of modern discharge measurements in the same region, which made it possible to correlate sedimentary characteristics of flood deposits with discharge. The paper makes use of an extended observational discharge series for the Lobith gauging station back to AD 1772 (Toonen, 2013a), and comparison with detailed historical records. Regression analysis between the various age-depth modelled grain-size parameters of flood beds and measured discharges is used to demonstrate the improvement in flood magnitude prediction resulting from standardized coarse-tail descriptive parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lower Rhine historical flood magnitudes of the last 450years reproduced from grain-size measurements of flood deposits using End Member Modelling

Toonen

Winkels

Cohen

et al. 2015

CATENA

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100

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Section: Research Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Known large floods of the last five centuries (Buisman, 2000(Buisman, , 2006Herget and Meurs, 2010;Toonen, 2013a) should correspond with the coarsest flood beds in the cores.…”

Section: Age-depth Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Age-depth Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Lower Rhine historical flood magnitudes of the last 450years reproduced from grain-size measurements of flood deposits using End Member Modelling

Toonen

Winkels

Cohen

et al. 2015

CATENA

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100

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Long‐term evolution of the Old Rhine estuary: Unravelling effects of changing boundary conditions and inherited landscape

Haas

Valk

Cohen

et al. 2019

The Depositional Record

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The long‐term morphodynamic evolution of estuaries depends on a combination of antecedent topography and boundary conditions, including fluvial input, sea‐level change and regional‐landscape interactions. Identifying effects of such boundary conditions on estuary evolution is important to anticipate future changes in specific boundary conditions and for hindcasting with numerical and physical models. A comprehensive synthesis of the evolution of the former Old Rhine estuary is presented here, together with its boundary conditions over its full lifespan from 6,500 to 1,000 cal. yr bp. This system formed during a period of sea‐level high stand, during which the estuary served as the main River Rhine outlet. The estuary went through three stages of evolution: a maturation phase in a wide infilling back‐barrier basin, a stable mature phase and an abandoning phase, both in a laterally confined setting. The Old Rhine River formed by a river avulsion around 6,500 cal. yr bp that connected to a tidal channel within a large back‐barrier basin. Decelerating sea‐level rise caused the back‐barrier basin to silt up around 5,700 cal. yr bp, resulting in shoreline progradation by beach‐barrier formation until ∼2,000 cal. yr bp. Beach‐barrier formation along the coast and natural levee formation along the river triggered peat formation in the coastal plain, laterally constraining the estuary and limiting overbank deposition, which caused most sediment to accumulate offshore. The abandoning phase started around 2,200 cal. yr bp when a series of upstream avulsions led to a substantial reduction in fluvial input. This induced a period of enhanced estuarine overbank clay deposition that continued into near‐complete silting up and estuary closure around 1200 ad. These findings exemplify how tidal systems, formed in wide coastal plains during sea‐level high stand, depend on antecedent conditions, and how they respond to connection and disconnection of a large river over long, millennial timescales.

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The influence of hydroclimatic variability on flood frequency in the Lower Rhine

Toonen

Middelkoop

Konijnendijk

et al. 2016

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Climate change is expected to significantly affect flooding regimes of river systems in the future. For Western Europe, flood risk assessments generally assume an increase in extreme events and flood risk, and as a result major investments are planned to reduce their impacts. However, flood risk assessments for the present day and the near future suffer from uncertainty, coming from short measurements series, limited precision of input data, arbitrary choices for particular statistical and modelling approaches, and climatic non-stationarities. This study demonstrates how historical and sedimentary information can extend data records, adds important information on extremes, and generally improves flood risk assessments. The collection of specific data on the occurrence and magnitude of extremes and the natural variability of the floods is shown to be of paramount importance to reduce uncertainty in our understanding of flooding regime changes in a changing climate. For the Lower Rhine (the Netherlands and Germany) estimated recurrence times and peak discharges associated with the current protection levels correlate poorly with historical and sedimentary information and seem biased towards the recent multi-decadal period of increased flood activity. Multi-decadal and centennial variability in flood activity is recorded in extended series of discharge data, historical information and sedimentary records. Over the last six centuries that variability correlates with components of the Atlantic climate system such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). These climatic non-stationarities importantly influence flood activity and the outcomes of flood risk assessments based on relatively short measurement series. Copyright Â© 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright Â© 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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Flood frequency analysis and discussion of non-stationarity of the Lower Rhine flooding regime (AD 1350–2011): Using discharge data, water level measurements, and historical records

Cited by 41 publications

References 46 publications

Lower Rhine historical flood magnitudes of the last 450years reproduced from grain-size measurements of flood deposits using End Member Modelling

Lower Rhine historical flood magnitudes of the last 450years reproduced from grain-size measurements of flood deposits using End Member Modelling

Long‐term evolution of the Old Rhine estuary: Unravelling effects of changing boundary conditions and inherited landscape

The influence of hydroclimatic variability on flood frequency in the Lower Rhine

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