Estimates of HIV-1 incidence based on serological methods: a brief methodological review

Abstract

The paper reviews the serological methods employed in the estimation of HIV incidence based on cross-sectional studies, as well as the main findings from studies carried out in Brazil that have used such methods. Each method is briefly described, as well as their advantages and limitations. The different methods are also analyzed as a set of complementary but sometimes contradictory strategies under permanent criticism and review, still far from a gold standard. Finally, an additional question % central to the accurate monitoring of the AIDS epidemic using such methods % is discussed: whether the different methods should or should not be adjusted. The debate is open and controversy should be viewed as an unavoidable consequence of a very dynamic research field, informed by the progress in sciences as diverse as epidemiology, biostatistics, mathematical modeling and different branches of basic science, such as immunology, virology, and molecular biology.

Results from a Method for Estimating HIV Incidence Based on the First Cd4 Count among Treatment-Naïve Cases: Brazil, 2004-2013

“…For each lag interval, the predicted values of the number of cases expected to be reported in years 2016 to 2020 were used to estimate observations originally missing due to truncation in 2015. Exemplifying, the predicted observations y 4, 2016 y 5, 2017 y 6,2018 y 7, 2019 and y 8,2020 , were used to complete the 2013 dataset and estimate HIV incidence in this year.…”

“…Despite its relevant role in surveillance, estimating the annual number of new infections remains challenging in many countries [7,8].…”

“…Apart from the difficulties in implementing this type of approach, this methodology is subject to selection bias of individuals who agree to participate and who remain in the study, and is affected by changes in risk behavior over time [8,17].…”

Mulheres soropositivas para o HIV: compreensão, sentimentos e vivência diante da maternidade

“…Valeria Freire Gonçalves (1,2) Danielle Queiroz Teixeira (1,3) Patricia Farias de Oliveira (3) Taynná Holanda e Sousa …”

“…A estimativa de pessoas vivendo com HIV/Aids no mundo gira em torno de 33,2 milhões. No Brasil, estima-se que são 630.000 indivíduos (1)(2)(3) . Quanto à transmissão entre os sexos, do início da pandemia até os dias atuais, observa-se uma mudança expressiva.…”