Results from a Method for Estimating HIV Incidence Based on the First Cd4 Count among Treatment-Naïve Cases: Brazil, 2004-2013

Szwarcwald, Célia Landmann; Júnior, Paulo Roberto Borges de Souza; Pascom, Ana Roberta Pati; Ferreira, Orlando da Costa

doi:10.4172/2155-6113.1000627

Cited by 11 publications

(19 citation statements)

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“…The Global Burden of Disease Study (Wang et al, 2016) assumes a slowly increasing epidemic trend similar to that of UNAIDS, also with a lower number of new infections (33,790, 95% CI 30,200–37,520 in 2015) but yielding an estimate of 558,840 (95% CI 454,380–687,400) PLHIV, lower than the official number of PLHIV linked to care (Pascom et al, 2017). Our estimates of incidence between 2004 and 2010 are higher than those published by Szwarcwald et al which are generated using a single surveillance database, however estimates do overlap in more recent years (Szwarcwald et al, 2016a). Using a phenomenological approach allows us to be agnostic about the incidence trends and the spline is not constrained with prior beliefs about the changing impact of the AIDS programme.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 80%

“…The findings suggest there has been a second wave of infections since 2001 which has been stabilising since 2010, contradicting previous estimates and official positions on the HIV incidence trends in Brazil (AIDSinfo, 2019; IHME, 2017; Szwarcwald et al, 2016a). This second peak has been speculated upon, given the disproportionately high incidence of infection recently reported in men, but this is the first time compelling evidence has been presented for it (Szwarcwald et al, 2016b; de Castro et al, 2010).…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 65%

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Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil

et al. 2019

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Highlights We combined four surveillance networks of HIV/AIDS monitoring in Brazil. We used an age-structured deterministic model to infer HIV incidence. By 2001 a second wave of HIV infections was occurring in Brazil. There were persistent differences in linkage to care by sex. Of 838,000 people living with HIV by 2015, 80% were diagnosed and reported.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 80%

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 65%

Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil

et al. 2019

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“…Even though our sample is different from the one in 2009, our findings move in the same direction as other sources of information. [ 2 , 44 , 45 ]…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men in Brazil

et al. 2018

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This paper reports human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in the 2nd National Biological and Behavioral Surveillance Survey (BBSS) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in 12 cities in Brazil using respondent-driven sampling (RDS).Following formative research, RDS was applied in 12 cities in the 5 macroregions of Brazil between June and December 2016 to recruit MSM for BBSS. The target sample size was 350 per city. Five to 6 seeds were initially selected to initiate recruitment and coupons and interviews were managed online. On-site rapid testing was used for HIV screening, and confirmed by a 2nd test. Participants were weighted using Gile estimator. Data from all 12 cities were merged and analyzed with Stata 14.0 complex survey data analysis tools in which each city was treated as its own strata. Missing data for those who did not test were imputed HIV+ if they reported testing positive before and were taking antiretroviral therapy.A total of 4176 men were recruited in the 12 cities. The average time to completion was 10.2 weeks. The longest chain length varied from 8 to 21 waves. The sample size was achieved in all but 2 cities.A total of 3958 of the 4176 respondents agreed to test for HIV (90.2%). For results without imputation, 17.5% (95%CI: 14.7–20.7) of our sample was HIV positive. With imputation, 18.4% (95%CI: 15.4–21.7) were seropositive.HIV prevalence increased beyond expectations from the results of the 2009 survey (12.1%; 95%CI: 10.0–14.5) to 18.4%; CI95%: 15.4 to 21.7 in 2016. This increase accompanies Brazil's focus on the treatment to prevention strategy, and a decrease in support for community-based organizations and community prevention programs.

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“…8 A exemplo do observado neste estudo, outros estudos em corroboram com os dados indicando, da mesma forma, o aumento do número de casos a população masculina. 7,[15][16][17] Apesar da razão de sexo ser inferior ao dado nacional, observa-se no oeste catarinense o aumento nos casos em homens para cada mulher, nos últimos anos, com razão de sexos de 1,40 em 2013, 1,58 em 2014 e, 1,86 homens para cada mulher em 2015, o que remete à discussão da estabilização da detecção de novos casos entre as mulheres e o crescimento entre os homens, convergente ao observado em outras regiões brasileiras. 18,19 Chama atenção a tendência estatisticamente signi-34,8/100mil pessoas/ano e segunda onda de infecções a partir de 2001, com crescimento de mais de 50% nas taxas para ambos os sexos.…”

Section: Discussionunclassified

Análise da tendência temporal da infecção pelo HIV/aids na região oeste catarinense: estudo retrospectivo 1984 – 2015

Weber

Tombini

Rosa³

et al. 2020

Rev Epidemiol Control Infect

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Justificativa e objetivos: As taxas de detecção do HIV/aids retratam cenários locais e possibilitam a descrição das características epidemiológicas de determinado fenômeno. Este estudo analisa a tendência temporal das taxas de detecção do HIV/aids segundo sexo e faixa etária no oeste catarinense entre os anos 1984 e 2015. Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo observacional de série temporal, com consulta em base de dados secundários. Os dados foram transcritos no programa Excel, obtida taxa de detecção e realizada a análise temporal utilizando a Regressão de Poisson. Resultados: Homens brancos, heterossexuais, com faixa etária dos 40 aos 59 anos e ensino fundamental incompleto caracterizam o perfil das pessoas/pacientes infectadas pelo HIV no oeste catarinense. Identificou-se um aumento significativo na população em geral, com destaque para a população masculina. A razão de sexos e faixa etária aponta para uma intensa dinâmica de mudança desde o início da epidemia. As taxas de detecção aumentaram em ambos os sexos e em diferentes faixas etárias. Conclusão: Os novos cenários da epidemia suscitam ferramentas e estratégias que alcancem a promoção da saúde e prevenção da infecção especialmente entre a população masculina jovem.

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Results from a Method for Estimating HIV Incidence Based on the First Cd4 Count among Treatment-Naïve Cases: Brazil, 2004-2013

Cited by 11 publications

References 40 publications

Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil

Estimating HIV incidence from surveillance data indicates a second wave of infections in Brazil

HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men in Brazil

Análise da tendência temporal da infecção pelo HIV/aids na região oeste catarinense: estudo retrospectivo 1984 – 2015

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