Estimated effectiveness of school closure and voluntary event cancellation as COVID-19 countermeasures in Japan

Kurita, Junko; Sugawara, Tamie; Ohkusa, Yasushi

doi:10.1016/j.jiac.2020.08.012

Cited by 30 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The following procedure was similar to that used for our earlier research [8,9]. We estimated the onset date of patients for whom onset dates were not reported as follows:…”

Section: The Number Of Symptomatic Patients Reported By the Ministry mentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating event ban effects on COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

Kurita

Sugawara

Ohkusa

2021

Preprint

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Background: As of end of 2020, the third wave of COVID-19 infection in Japan was larger than the prior two waves. On the other hand, travel subsiding policy Go To Travel Campaign (GTTC) was activated on July 22 and continued until December 28. Therefore, GTTC was presumed as the main cause of the third wave. Object: We evaluated GTTC effects considering climate conditions and mobility. Method: We regressed effective reproduction number, R(t), on temperature, humidity, mobility, and countermeasures such as the emergency state declaration or GTTC. Results: Estimation results indicate that temperature was significantly negative, mobility was significantly positive. The emergency state and GTTC were significantly negative but school closure and voluntary even cancellation in February and March was significantly boost infectiousness. Discussion and Conclusion: Estimation results show that R(t) would increase by 0.24 if the temperature were to decline by twenty degrees Celsius. To cancel this effect, going out should be reduced by 20%. We conclude that GTTC did not raise infectiousness.

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“…The following procedure was similar to that used for our earlier research [8,9]. We estimated the onset date of patients for whom onset dates were not reported as follows:…”

Section: The Number Of Symptomatic Patients Reported By the Ministry mentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating event ban effects on COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

Kurita

Sugawara

Ohkusa

2021

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Similar analyses by other researchers reinforce that varying adoption rates of peer-to-peer contact tracing apps can influence the trajectory of the pandemic [ 17 , 29 ]. By employing the simulation model described in [ 30 ], we estimated how the rate of participation would affect the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan ( Figure 5 ). The model evaluates scenarios in which the epidemic is established and countermeasures such as contact tracing are employed to control the spread of COVID-19; it can be observed how the trend of the effective reproduction number (R t ) and thus of the outbreak would dynamically change.…”

Section: Statistical Analysis and Simulation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prior research identified that when R t , which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated by a single infectious case, decreases to less than one (ie, R t <1), transmission of the disease will stop and the pandemic will ultimately be contained [ 22 - 24 ]. The simulation was calibrated to the demographic attributes in Japan [ 14 , 22 , 25 - 27 , 29 ], the basic reproduction number (ie, 2.56) found for Japan [ 30 ], and the ratios of symptomatic patients in the report by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan [ 31 ]. The assumptions for the simulation are as follows: (1) the population can freely choose to opt in or opt out from COCOA; (2) there are no delays in data sharing; and (3) all the populations in households, schools, workplaces, and other scenarios can be successfully digitally traced.…”

Section: Statistical Analysis and Simulation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Design and Implementation of a Peer-To-Peer COVID-19 Contact Tracing Mobile App (COCOA) in Japan

Nakamoto¹,

Jiang²,

Zhang³

et al. 2020

JMIR Mhealth Uhealth

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We evaluate a Bluetooth-based mobile contact-confirming app, COVID-19 Contact-Confirming Application (COCOA), which is being used in Japan to contain the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel virus termed SARS-COV-2. The app prioritizes the protection of users’ privacy from a variety of parties (eg, other users, potential attackers, and public authorities), enhances the capacity to balance the current load of excessive pressure on health care systems (eg, local triage of exposure risk and reduction of in-person hospital visits), increases the speed of responses to the pandemic (eg, automated recording of close contact based on proximity), and reduces operation errors and population mobility. The peer-to-peer framework of COCOA is intended to provide the public with dynamic and credible updates on the COVID-19 pandemic without sacrificing the privacy of their information. However, cautions must be exercised to address critical concerns, such as the rate of participation and delays in data sharing. The results of a simulation imply that the participation rate in Japan needs to be close 90% to effectively control the spread of COVID-19.

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“…Kedua, para pemimpin akademik harus mendistribusikan tanggung jawab kepemimpinan ke jaringan tim di seluruh organisasi untuk meningkatkan kualitas keputusan yang dibuat dalam penyelesaian krisis. Ketiga, para pemimpin harus berkomunikasi dengan jelas dan sering kepada semua pemangku kepentingan melalui berbagai saluran komunikasi (Fernandez & Shaw, 2020b;Kurita, Sugawara, & Ohkusa, 2021).…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Kepemimpinan kepala sekolah dalam menjaga tata kelola sekolah selama masa pandemi Covid-19

Nadeak

Juwita

2020

JKP

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This study aims to analyze the leadership of school principals in learning during the Covid-19 pandemic. This study used a quantitative descriptive research method with as many as 63 school principals as respondents who were scattered throughout Indonesia. Data collection was carried out online using an open questionnaire via the google form platform. The data were then analyzed using theme and percentage analysis to measure and analyze the conditions of learning governance during the Covid-19 pandemic. The results showed that 54.55% of the learning activities in schools were carried out online during the Covid-19 pandemic. Then in online learning activities 36.89% use google classroom, 20.39% use zoom, and 15.53% use Whatsapp. Most of the applications used to carry out online learning activities are Google classroom, Zoom and WhatsApp and a few others use other applications. Some of the governance processes in schools have been carried out well but some have not been maximized because they are constrained by the availability of facilities, networks, tools and the limited skills of teachers in using technological media. Learning strategies as well as discussions and strengthening between school principals and school personnel are needed to maximize school governance especially during the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Estimated effectiveness of school closure and voluntary event cancellation as COVID-19 countermeasures in Japan

Cited by 30 publications

References 14 publications

Estimating event ban effects on COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

Estimating event ban effects on COVID-19 outbreak in Japan

Evaluation of the Design and Implementation of a Peer-To-Peer COVID-19 Contact Tracing Mobile App (COCOA) in Japan

Kepemimpinan kepala sekolah dalam menjaga tata kelola sekolah selama masa pandemi Covid-19

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