Errors and uncertainties associated with missing wind data and short records

Salmon, James R.; Taylor, Peter

doi:10.1002/we.1613

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…For wind data, monthly values were averaged over the year before the test (from November 2007 to October 2008 for herds tested in 2008 and from June 2008 to May 2009 for herds tested in 2009). The corresponding U and V components were then combined to calculate the yearly average wind speed using the following equation (1): Monthly means and annual averages of climatic data are commonly used in climatic sciences [21, 22]. For precipitation and temperature, data were accumulated over the whole year before the test.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Q fever infection in dairy cattle herds: increased risk with high wind speed and low precipitation

et al. 2015

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SUMMARYRuminants are considered the main reservoir for transmission of Coxiella burnetii (Cb) to humans. The implementation of effective control measures against Cb in ruminants requires knowledge about potential risk factors. The objectives of this study were (i) to describe the spatial distribution of Q fever-infected dairy cattle herds in Sweden, (ii) to quantify the respective contributions of wind and animal movements on the risk of infection, while accounting for other sources of variation, and (iii) to investigate the possible protective effect of precipitation. A total of 1537 bulk milk samples were collected and tested for presence of Cb antibodies. The prevalence of test-positive herds was higher in the south of Sweden. For herds located in areas with high wind speed, open landscape, high animal densities and high temperature, the risk of being infected reached very high values. Because these factors are difficult to control, vaccination could be an appropriate control measure in these areas. Finally, the cumulated precipitation over 1 year was identified as a protective factor.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Q fever infection in dairy cattle herds: increased risk with high wind speed and low precipitation

et al. 2015

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“…They consisted of monthly averages of latitudinal and longitudinal wind vector components, named U and V, respectively, and expressed in m/s. Monthly means of climatic data are commonly used in climate sciences (Dadaser‐Celik and Cengiz, ; Salmon and Taylor, ). Values considered for each herd were the values corresponding to the location of the herd in the grid.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Wind onCoxiella burnetiiTransmission Between Cattle Herds: a Mechanistic Approach

Nusinovici

Hoch

Brahim

et al. 2015

Transbound Emerg Dis

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There is a consensus that wind plays a key role in the transmission of Coxiella burnetii, the causative agent of Q fever, between ruminants and from ruminants to humans. However, no observational study so far has focused on the mechanisms associated with this airborne transmission. This study applied a mechanistic epidemiological approach to investigate the processes underlying the wind effect and to assess its influence on the risk for a dairy herd to become C. burnetii infected. Ninety-five dairy cattle herds located in the Finistère department (western France) were subjected to samplings of bulk tank milk and indoor dust every 4 months over a 1-year period to determine their C. burnetii status using PCR tests. A total of 27 incident herd-periods (negative-tested on both PCR tests and becoming positive-tested at least once at the subsequent sampling time) and 71 negative herd-periods were retained for analysis. Using logistic regression, we assessed the effect of (i) the cumulated number of bacteria in herds located under the main wind direction and (ii) the mean wind speed in this area, on a given herd's risk of becoming incident. Compared to herds in areas with low wind speed (≤5.5 m/s), the risk was significantly higher (OR = 3.7) in herds in areas with high wind speed (>5.5 m/s) and high bacterial load (>10), whereas it was not significantly different from unity in other situations. In agreement with our assumptions, C. burnetii transmission to a previously infection-free herd occurs only when (i) the wind transporting from infected sources and (ii) the load in the contaminated particles/aerosols generated are high enough to act jointly.

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“…This is especially enhanced due to the limited amount of data that was available to construct the power curve used in this analysis. The uncertainty associated with the use of short data periods or data sets with missing data is discussed in [15]. The heteroscedastic nature of wind turbine power production is less evident when using 10-min data, as it is the current industry practice [16].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power based on dual-Doppler radar measurements in the North Sea

Valldecabres

Nygaard

Bremen

et al. 2018

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

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Abstract. Probabilistic very short-term forecasts of wind farm power can provide valuable information for electricity market participants, especially in power systems with high penetration of wind energy. Recently, the first dual-Doppler radar measurements of an offshore wind farm have become available. A probabilistic very short-term forecasting model of wind power is proposed using observed wind speeds and directions from a dual-Doppler radar system. Predictive wind speed distributions are derived from three-dimensional dual-Doppler observations covering the wind farm and its vicinity. To estimate the power generated by the wind turbines, a power curve constructed with dual-Doppler observations is used. A forecasting horizon of five minutes is evaluated. Results show an improved performance of a deterministic radar-based forecast of power versus the benchmarks persistence and climatology, and also a high potential for a wind power probabilistic forecast.

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Errors and uncertainties associated with missing wind data and short records

Cited by 8 publications

References 3 publications

Q fever infection in dairy cattle herds: increased risk with high wind speed and low precipitation

Q fever infection in dairy cattle herds: increased risk with high wind speed and low precipitation

The Effect of Wind onCoxiella burnetiiTransmission Between Cattle Herds: a Mechanistic Approach

Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power based on dual-Doppler radar measurements in the North Sea

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