-Delivery of infected pigs to the slaughterhouse is a major source of pork meat contamination by bacterial hazards to humans. We propose a model of Salmonella spread within a farrow-to-finish pig herd, assuming the prevalence in infected delivered pigs depends on the whole pig life-time and growing process. This stochastic discrete-time model represents both the population dynamics in a farrow-to-finish pig herd using batch management, and Salmonella spread. Four mutually exclusive individual health states were considered: Salmonella-free, seronegative shedder, seropositive shedder and seropositive not shedding carrier, making the distinction between seropositive animals and shedders. Since indirect transmission is the main route of transmission, the probability of infection depends on the quantity of Salmonella in the pigs' environment (Q). A dose effect function is used with two thresholds, assuming saturation in exposure for high Q vs. a minimum exposure for low Q. Salmonella is introduced in an initially Salmonella-free 150-sow herd. Prevalence of shedders and seroprevalence are calculated over time in batches of sows and pigs, and in groups of delivered pigs, composed of pigs from different batches. The model shows very variable seroprevalence over time within a herd among delivered groups, as well as among replications. The mean seroprevalence and the mean shedding prevalence are 19.3% and 13.8% respectively. A sensitivity analysis shows that the Salmonella quantity shed and the maternal protective factor are the most influential parameters on Salmonella prevalence in delivered pigs. swine / Salmonella / epidemiological model / population dynamics / environment
This paper presents the general framework of a n ecological model of the English Channel. The model is a result of combining a physical sub-model with a biological one. In the physical submodel, the Channel is divided into 71 boxes and water fluxes between them are calculated automatically. A 2-layer, vertical thermohaline model was then linked with the horizontal circulation scheme. This physical sub-model exhibits thermal stratification in the western Channel during spring and summer and haline stratification in the Bay of Seine due to high flow rates from the river The biological sub-model takes 2 elements, nitrogen and silicon, into account and divides phytoplankton into diatoms and dinoflagellates. Results from this ecological model emphasize the influence of stratification on chlorophyll a concentrations a s well as on primary production. Stratified waters appear to be much less productive than well-mixed ones. Nevertheless, when simulated production values are compared with literature data, calculated production is shown to be underestimated. This could be attributed to a lack of refinement of the 2-layer box-model or processes omitted from the biological model, such as production by nanoplankton.
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