The renewable power generation aggregated across Europe exhibits strong seasonal behaviors. Wind power generation is much stronger in winter than in summer. The opposite is true for solar power generation. In a future Europe with a very high share of renewable power generation those two opposite behaviors are able to counterbalance each other to a certain extent to follow the seasonal load curve. The best point of counterbalancing represents the seasonal optimal mix between wind and solar power generation. It leads to a pronounced minimum in required stored energy. For a 100% renewable Europe the seasonal optimal mix becomes 55% wind and 45% solar power generation. For less than 100% renewable scenarios the fraction of wind power generation increases and that of solar power generation decreases

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Very short-term forecasts of wind power provide electricity market participants with extremely valuable information, especially in power systems with high penetration of wind energy. In very short-term horizons, statistical methods based on historical data are frequently used. This paper explores the use of dual-Doppler radar observations of wind speed and direction to derive five-minute ahead deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of wind power. An advection-based technique is introduced, which estimates the predictive densities of wind speed at the target wind turbine. In a case study, the proposed methodology is used to forecast the power generated by seven turbines in the North Sea with a temporal resolution of one minute. The radar-based forecast outperforms the persistence and climatology benchmarks in terms of overall forecasting skill. Results indicate that when a large spatial coverage of the inflow of the wind turbine is available, the proposed methodology is also able to generate reliable density forecasts. Future perspectives on the application of Doppler radar observations for very short-term wind power forecasting are discussed in this paper. methods can be found in [6][7][8]. Very short-term forecasts of wind speed and power are often based on machine learning methods such as artificial neural networks [9] or Markov chain models [10,11], which are trained with historical data. Alternatively, combinations of different models (known as hybrid models) have been proposed to overcome the deficiencies of single models [12]. Parallel to the development of single point or deterministic forecasting models, the use of probabilistic forecasts, which include information about the uncertainty associated with the predicted events, has increased. Examples of very short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power using statistical methods can be found in [13,14]. These probabilistic forecasts are known as predictive densities or probability distributions and provide important information for making risk-based decisions [15].Over the last two decades, the use of remote sensing measurements such as long-range lidars [16] has been extended in the wind industry. These systems are capable of measuring wind speed and direction (under certain assumptions) up to 30 km [17]. Unlike conventional wind measurements from met-mast or satellites, they present an adequate trade-off between temporal and spatial resolution for wind farm applications. However, the prediction horizon of a remote sensing-based forecasting model is limited by the maximum range of the remote sensing measurements and also influenced by meteorological conditions [18]. Indeed, publications on the use of long-range lidar measurements for wind energy applications have reported measurements with a maximum range of less than ten kilometers [19][20][21]. Despite those limitations, a recent contribution showed that a lidar-based forecasting technique can provide better results than conventional statistical benchmarks when forecasting near-coastal winds with le...

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Shares of renewables continue to grow in the European power system. A fully renewable European power system will primarily depend on the renewable power sources of wind and photovoltaics (PV), which are not dispatchable but intermittent and therefore pose a challenge to the balancing of the power system. To overcome this issue, several solutions have been proposed and investigated in the past, including storage, backup power, reinforcement of the transmission grid, and demand side management (DSM). In this paper, we investigate the potential of DSM to balance a simplified, fully renewable European power system. For this purpose, we use ten years of weather and historical load data, a power-flow model and the implementation of demand side management as a storage equivalent, to investigate the impact of DSM on the need for backup energy. We show that DSM has the potential to reduce the need for backup energy in Europe by up to one third and can cover the need for backup up to a renewable share of 67%. Finally, it is demonstrated that the optimal mix of wind and PV is shifted by the utilisation of DSM towards a higher share of PV, from 19% to 36%.