Epidemiology and Forecast of the Prevalence of Esophageal Cancer in the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

This is the published version of the paper.This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. Permanent repository link AbstractIn this article the problems of the prevalence of esophageal cancer and the spatial distribution of mortality rates from this disease are considered using as examples the NUTS 2 regions in six countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Austria, Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary). The rates of mortality from esophageal cancer are analyzed by statistical methods and by spatial econometrics. A study is carried out of the features of the spatial distribution of the rates of mortality from esophageal cancer. It allows us to determine more and less epidemiologically affected regions and to carry out more detailed studies on the link between the mortality rates from esophageal cancer and various factors, such as the environmental situation, socio-demographic characteristics of the population, culture and nature of nutrition, the general health status of the population, the availability of resources and the level of healthcare in the region. By means of the multifactor regression model we forecast the rates of mortality from esophageal cancer, taking into account characteristics of the countries, the dynamics of the number of patients with diseases of the esophagus and the general time trend.

Tendencies of the Mortality Rates From Esophageal Cancer in the Eu Countries and Ukraine

“…It is should be noted that our calculations were relatively closed for the results of the analysis pro- Source: own elaboration in Statistica where the predicted values obtained for 2014-2016 were closed to their real data observed later [1]. Also in the mentioned research the regional characteristics were studied and spatial effect was revealed, that is important to provide further investigations for factors which have significant impact on the mortality rates from the esophageal cancer in the different regions or territories in selected countries.…”

“…Research carried out in different countries has indicated that the prognosis of the course of esophageal cancer is unfavorable, because the disease is predominantly diagnosed in the later stages [1,12,13]. Even if cancer is diagnosed in the early stages and a surgical operation is possible, the survival rate is much less than in the case of other types of cancer.…”

“…Esophageal cancer has ranks in the top of 15 main causes of death connected with malignant tumors in the world. According to reports more than 450 000 people worldwide have this diagnosis and the occurrence of this disease is increasing rapidly [1,2]. Standardized rates of the frequency of incidence of esophageal cancer and the rates of mortality from this cause differ significantly by countries and regions.…”

“…The rates of incidence of esophageal cancer differ by age and gender groups. The risk of occurrence of this disease increases with age, and esophageal cancer occurs more frequently in males than in females [1,2,4,6,8,9,12].…”