Epidemiological model for India's <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 pandemic

Youkta, Kumari; Paramanik, Rajendra Narayan

doi:10.1002/pa.2639

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 12 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Indian government implemented a nationwide quarantine measure. Due to the timely strictly implementation of quarantine measures by the government, the total number of early infections in India was lower than that in other countries [3] . However, there were still many problems in the isolation measure.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Prediction of Second Wave of COVID-19 in India using the Modified SEIR Model

Sun

Zhao

Tian

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The second wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in India was caused by the COVID-19 Delta variant. However, the epidemiological characteristics and transmission mechanism of the Delta variant remain unclear. To explore whether the epidemic trend will change after effective isolation measures were taken and what is the minimum number of individuals who need to be vaccinated to end the epidemic.Methods: We used actual data from March 5 to April 15, 2021, of daily updates confirmed cases and deaths, to estimate the parameters of the model and predict the severity of possible infection in the coming months. The classical Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model and extended models [Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed-Quarantine (SERIQ) model and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed- medicine (SERIM) model] were developed to simulate the development of epidemic under the circumstances of without any measures, after effective isolation measures were taken and after being fully vaccinated.Results: The result demonstrated good accuracy of the classic model. The SEIRQ model showed that after isolation measures were taken, the infections will decrease by 99.61% compared to the actual number of infections by April 15. And the SEIRQ model demonstrated that if the vaccine efficative rate was 90%, when the vaccination rate was 100%, the number of existing cases would reach a peak of 529,723 cases on the 52nd day.Conclusion: Effective quarantine measures and COVID-19 vaccination from official are critical prevention measures to help end the COVID-19 pandemic.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 89%

Prediction of Second Wave of COVID-19 in India using the Modified SEIR Model

Sun

Zhao

Tian

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Students' social interaction outside the classroom and learning motivation are two important factors that have the potential to dampen the peak magnitude of the spread of student learning behavior as a whole. The SEIR model was developed to track deployment peaks (Youkta & Paramanik, 2021).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Mathematical model of student learning behavior with the effect of learning motivation and student social interaction

Mutiawati¹,

Johar²,

Ramli³

et al. 2022

j. math. educ.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study aims to determine the mathematical model of student learning behavior. The model is built by analogizing the spread of learning behavior with infectious diseases, which is called the SEIR model. The survey was conducted through filling out a questionnaire on the learning behavior of junior high school students with a population of 1,143 students. The results of the simulation model show that the peak of students' vulnerability to changes in learning behavior increases rapidly in the first two days and will be stable when passing the 150th day. The results of the simulation of the SEIR mathematical model with an incubation period of 365 days found that student learning behavior in Non-Boarding Schools will be stable in on day 198, while in Boarding Schools it will be stable on day 201. Infection cases in Boarding Schools fell to 0 on day 25 while in Non-Boarding Schools decreased on day 21, meaning that infections occurring in Boarding Schools were slower and more resistant long, meaning that the influence of the social environment is very significant on student learning behavior. This study also serves as material for policy formulation for the Aceh Provincial Government regarding the junior high school curriculum.

show abstract

Epidemiological model for India's COVID‐19 pandemic

Youkta

Paramanik²

2021

Journal of Public Affairs

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This study aims to analyse the effectiveness of the lockdown measure taken to control the transmission of COVID-19 in India by examining the peak of the epidemic pre and post the adoption of stringent lockdown from 25 March 2020. Susceptibleexposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model has been developed to trace the peak of the outbreak. The study suggests that with the implementation of lockdown the peak of epidemic in India has delayed by two and a half month. Before lockdown peak was examined in end of May 2020 but post lockdown, it is expected to arrive in mid-August 2020. Thus lockdown measures has delayed the arrival of peak of epidemic which would be helpful in preparing the healthcare system in advance, to tackle worst situation if arises in future.

show abstract

Epidemiological model for India's COVID‐19 pandemic

Cited by 4 publications

References 12 publications

Prediction of Second Wave of COVID-19 in India using the Modified SEIR Model

Prediction of Second Wave of COVID-19 in India using the Modified SEIR Model

Mathematical model of student learning behavior with the effect of learning motivation and student social interaction

Epidemiological model for India's COVID‐19 pandemic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About