Epidemic size of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia in the Epicenter Wuhan: using data of five-countries’ evacuation action

Zhao, Hong; Man, Sailimai; Wang, B; Ning, Yi

doi:10.1101/2020.02.12.20022285

Cited by 14 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…We confirm by simulated quantification evidence that the traffic blockage is effective in controlling the epidemic of COVID-19, and the quarantine is a more effective way to help the public to prevent cross-infection. With the development of the epidemic, we have to admit the fact that there are still a number of population who are exposed to the COVID-19 without clinical symptoms [18][19][20]. Those population may carry the COVID-19 for several days and might infect others who are closely contacting with, which makes the potentional risk.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Efficacy of Quarantine and Traffic Blockage for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19):A Simulation Analysis

Liu

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: Since the 2019-nCoV outbreaks in Wuhan, China, the cumulative number of confirmed cases is increasing every day, and a large number of populations all over the world are at risk. The quarantine and traffic blockage can alleviate the risk of the epidemic and the infections, henceforth evaluating the efficacy of such actions is essential to inform policy makers and raise the public awareness of the importance of self-isolation and quarantine. Method:We collected confirmed case data and the migration data, and introduced the quarantine factor and traffic blockage factor to the Flow-SEIR model. By varying the quarantine factor and traffic blockage factor, we simulated the change of the peak number and arrival time of infections, then the efficacy of these two intervation measures can be analyzed in our simulation. In our study, the self-protection at home is also included in quarantine. Results:In the simulated results, the quarantine and traffic blockage are effective for epidemic control. For Hubei province, the current quarantine factor is estimaed to be 0.405, which means around 40.5% of suceptibles who are close contacting with are in quarantine, and the current traffic blockage factor is estimaed to be 0.66, which indicates around 34% of suceptibles who had flowed out from Hubei. For the other provinces outside Hubei, the current quarantine factor is estimated to be 0.285, and the current traffic blockage factor is estimated to be 0.26. With the quarantine and traffic blockage factor increasing, the number of infections decrease dramatically. We also simulated the start dates of quarantine and traffic blockage at four time points, the simulated results show that the early of warning is also effective for epidemic containing.However, provincial level traffic blockage can only alleviate 21.06% -22.38% of the peak number of infections. In general, the quarantine is much more effective than the traffic blockage control.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Efficacy of Quarantine and Traffic Blockage for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19):A Simulation Analysis

Liu

et al. 2020

Preprint

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“…Important epidemic parameters were estimated [2, 3], including basic reproduction number [4], doubling time [5] and serial interval [6]. In addition, some advanced models were developed in handling untraced contacts [7], undetected international cases [8], and actual infected cases [9]. Statistical reasoning [10, 11] and stochastic simulation [12, 13] were also explored by a few researchers.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Recursive Bifurcation Model for Predicting the Peak of COVID-19 Virus Spread in United States and Germany

Shen

2020

Preprint

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Prediction on the peak time of COVID-19 virus spread is crucial to decision making on lockdown or closure of cities and states. In this paper we design a recursive bifurcation model for analyzing COVID-19 virus spread in different countries. The bifurcation facilitates a recursive processing of infected population through linear least-squares fitting. In addition, a nonlinear least-squares fitting is utilized to predict the future values of infected populations. Numerical results on the data from three countries (South Korea, United States and Germany) indicate the effectiveness of our approach.All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

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“…In first category, samples are collected from one or more certain population considering different pandemic parameters such as doubling rate [12] , basic reproduction factor [13] , serial intermission [14] etc and then perform statistical analysis on collected samples to make required prediction of aforementioned pandemic. Also based on such analysis, several statistical models have been proposed to detect actual inter country infected cases [15] as well as to trace unidentified cases [16] , to determine the effects of local and global migration of people [ 17 , 18 ] etc. Also different advanced statistical techniques have been used to predict the outbreak of corona virus in [19] , [20] , [21] , [22] , [23] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection

Ghosh¹,

Ghosh

et al. 2021

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

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Most of the widely populated countries across the globe have been observing vicious spread and detrimental effects of pandemic COVID-19 since its inception on December 19. Therefore to restrict the spreading of pandemic COVID-19, various researches are going on in both medical and administrative sectors. The focus has been given in this research keeping an administrative point of view in mind. In this paper a dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection has been proposed. Few factors related to intra zone mobilization; inter zone mobilization and rate of detection are the key points in the proposed model. Various remedial steps are taken into consideration in the form of operating procedures. Further such operating procedures are applied over the model in standalone or hybridized mode and responses are reported in this paper in a case-studies manner. Further zone-wise increase in infected population due to the spreading of pandemic COVID-19 has been studied and reported in this paper. Also the proposed model has been applied over the real world data considering three states of India and the predicted responses are compared with real data and reported with bar chart representation in this paper.

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Epidemic size of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia in the Epicenter Wuhan: using data of five-countries’ evacuation action

Cited by 14 publications

References 4 publications

Estimating the Efficacy of Quarantine and Traffic Blockage for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19):A Simulation Analysis

Estimating the Efficacy of Quarantine and Traffic Blockage for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19):A Simulation Analysis

A Recursive Bifurcation Model for Predicting the Peak of COVID-19 Virus Spread in United States and Germany

Dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection

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