Estimating the Efficacy of Quarantine and Traffic Blockage for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19):A Simulation Analysis

Abstract

Background: Since the 2019-nCoV outbreaks in Wuhan, China, the cumulative number of confirmed cases is increasing every day, and a large number of populations all over the world are at risk. The quarantine and traffic blockage can alleviate the risk of the epidemic and the infections, henceforth evaluating the efficacy of such actions is essential to inform policy makers and raise the public awareness of the importance of self-isolation and quarantine. Method:We collected confirmed case data and the migration data, and introduced the quarantine factor and traffic blockage factor to the Flow-SEIR model. By varying the quarantine factor and traffic blockage factor, we simulated the change of the peak number and arrival time of infections, then the efficacy of these two intervation measures can be analyzed in our simulation. In our study, the self-protection at home is also included in quarantine. Results:In the simulated results, the quarantine and traffic blockage are effective for epidemic control. For Hubei province, the current quarantine factor is estimaed to be 0.405, which means around 40.5% of suceptibles who are close contacting with are in quarantine, and the current traffic blockage factor is estimaed to be 0.66, which indicates around 34% of suceptibles who had flowed out from Hubei. For the other provinces outside Hubei, the current quarantine factor is estimated to be 0.285, and the current traffic blockage factor is estimated to be 0.26. With the quarantine and traffic blockage factor increasing, the number of infections decrease dramatically. We also simulated the start dates of quarantine and traffic blockage at four time points, the simulated results show that the early of warning is also effective for epidemic containing.However, provincial level traffic blockage can only alleviate 21.06% -22.38% of the peak number of infections. In general, the quarantine is much more effective than the traffic blockage control.

COVID-19 Pandemic and Comparative Health Policy Learning in Iran

“…Therefore, early warning, timely traffic restrictions and quarantine, especially at the start of the epidemic, are very effective, as with one day delay in implementing this policy, approximately 1800 people will be at risk. 50 Another author argued that Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan, despite being extremely connected with China, reported a very small number of cases. 40 These countries have taken all measures for containment, using the SARS experience.…”

Spread and Impact of COVID-19 in China: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Predictions From Transmission-Dynamic Models

“…The virus rapidly spread across China and the rest of the world. As of 9 May, 83,976 confirmed infections and 4,639 deaths had been reported within China 1,2 . The majority of cases in China have been identified in Hubei Province, especially within Wuhan.…”

“…The Wuhan Municipal Government began a citywide lockdown on 23 January 2020 to slow the spread of the disease, and other cities in Hubei Province soon followed suit 3 . The lockdown effectively curbed further exportation of the epidemic from Hubei to the other provinces of China (1)(2)(3)(4). Within China, the outbreak has been effectively under control and the main effort was put in identifying the imported cases from overseas 1 .…”

“…Available online at: www.nhc.gov.cn/ (accessed March 16, 2020). 2 World Health Organization. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-2019) Situation Reports.…”

Assessing the Tendency of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) Outbreak in China

“…The SEIR model is introduced in 1984 by Aron and Schwartz [16], where S, E, I and R referring to the Susceptibles, Exposed, Infective, and Recovered, respectively. The followed SEIR model added the Exposed [17] [18].…”