A Recursive Bifurcation Model for Predicting the Peak of COVID-19 Virus Spread in United States and Germany

Shen, Julia

doi:10.1101/2020.04.09.20059329

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 20 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…= Total infected population (with/without detected including death) at the end of ℎ day. In this model the updation of alive non-detected infected population is done by equation (6) and further the distribution factors can be updated by equation (7). If mobilization of any zone is stopped then in this model the corresponding factors have to be zero.…”

Section: = − (5)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One of the preliminary reasons behind such rapid spreading of the disease has been identified as the contagious nature of the alleged virus which enables the cumulative increase in the number of infections through daily anthropologic activities that require social interactions [5]. Also the stability property of the disease free equilibrium of COVID-19 indicates that proper vaccination for cure from this virus is not yet developed [6]. Therefore, social distancing and rapid detection test have been evolved as the most acceptable preventive measures in recent time [7,8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Dynamic Model of Infected Population Due to Spreading of Pandemic COVID-19 Considering Both Intra and Inter Zone Mobilization Factors with Rate of Detection

Ghosh¹,

Ghosh

et al. 2020

Preprint

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In present scenario the pandemic COVID-19 is spreading out in most of the widely populated countries. Various researches to restrict the spreading of pandemic COVID-19 are going on in both medical and administrative point of view. The focus has been given in this research keeping administrative point of view in mind. In this paper a dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection has been proposed. Few factors related to intra zone mobilization; inter zone mobilization and rate of detection are the key points in the proposed model. Various remedial steps are taken into consideration in the form of operating procedures. Further such operating procedures are applied over the model in standalone or hybridized mode and responses are reported in this paper in case-studies manner. Further zone-wise increase in infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 has been studied and reported in this paper.

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Section: = − (5)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Model of Infected Population Due to Spreading of Pandemic COVID-19 Considering Both Intra and Inter Zone Mobilization Factors with Rate of Detection

Ghosh¹,

Ghosh

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…One of the preliminary reasons behind such rapid spreading of the disease has been identified as the contagious nature of the alleged virus which enables cumulative increase in the number of infections through daily anthropologic activities that require social interactions [5] . Also the stability property of the disease free equilibrium of COVID-19 indicates that proper vaccination for cure from this virus is not yet developed [6] . Therefore, social distancing and rapid detection test have been evolved as the most acceptable preventive measures in recent time [ 7 , 8 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection

Ghosh¹,

Ghosh

et al. 2021

Chaos, Solitons & Fractals

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Most of the widely populated countries across the globe have been observing vicious spread and detrimental effects of pandemic COVID-19 since its inception on December 19. Therefore to restrict the spreading of pandemic COVID-19, various researches are going on in both medical and administrative sectors. The focus has been given in this research keeping an administrative point of view in mind. In this paper a dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection has been proposed. Few factors related to intra zone mobilization; inter zone mobilization and rate of detection are the key points in the proposed model. Various remedial steps are taken into consideration in the form of operating procedures. Further such operating procedures are applied over the model in standalone or hybridized mode and responses are reported in this paper in a case-studies manner. Further zone-wise increase in infected population due to the spreading of pandemic COVID-19 has been studied and reported in this paper. Also the proposed model has been applied over the real world data considering three states of India and the predicted responses are compared with real data and reported with bar chart representation in this paper.

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“…The LSA is one of the most popular estimation methods in machine learning and has been used in many scientific and engineering applications [30][31][32], including epidemiology, for calibrating mathematical models' parameters based on time series data while also generating disease forecasts in the near or long terms [14,[33][34][35]. While it has been used for centuries as a classic curve-fitting technique [31,32], it is still a basic tool in modern data science because of its least-squares Euclidean ℓ 2 -norm minimization that is advantageous over other norms and metrics, such as the ℓ ∞ and ℓ 1 norms, granting reduced sensibility to outliers due to the squared error [32,36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation and Monitoring of COVID-19's Transmissibility From Publicly Available Data

Silveira

Pereira

2020

Front. Appl. Math. Stat.

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The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic began in the city of Wuhan, China, at the end of 2019 and quickly spread worldwide. The disease is caused by contact with the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which probably jumped from an animal host to humans. SARS-CoV-2 infects various tissues in the body, notably the lungs, and patients usually die from respiratory complications. Mathematical models of the disease have been instrumental to guide the implementation of mitigation strategies aimed at slowing the spread of the disease. One of the key parameters of mathematical models is the basic reproduction ratio R 0 , which measures the degree of infectivity of affected individuals. The goal of mitigation is to reduce R 0 as close or below 1 as possible, as it means that new infections are in decline. In this work, we use the recursive least-squares algorithm to establish the stochastic variability of a time-varying R 0 (t) from eight different countries:

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A Recursive Bifurcation Model for Predicting the Peak of COVID-19 Virus Spread in United States and Germany

Cited by 6 publications

References 20 publications

Dynamic Model of Infected Population Due to Spreading of Pandemic COVID-19 Considering Both Intra and Inter Zone Mobilization Factors with Rate of Detection

Dynamic Model of Infected Population Due to Spreading of Pandemic COVID-19 Considering Both Intra and Inter Zone Mobilization Factors with Rate of Detection

Dynamic model of infected population due to spreading of pandemic COVID-19 considering both intra and inter zone mobilization factors with rate of detection

Estimation and Monitoring of COVID-19's Transmissibility From Publicly Available Data

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