Environmental resilience of rangeland ecosystems: assessment drought indices and vegetation trends on arid and semi-arid zones of Central Asia

Aralova, Dildora; Toderich, Kristina; Jarihani, Ben; Gafurov, Dilshod; Gismatulina, Liliya; Osunmadewa, Babatunde Adeniyi; Abualgasim, Majdaldin Rahamtallah

doi:10.1117/12.2242563

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…The previous study by Hoell et al (2020) indicated the probability of drought onset and demise during wet season mainly derived by the seasonal cycle of Pr in the upper and lower Amu Darya basin, while the role of temperature is less. In contrast, Aralova et al (2016) remarked that the increase in drought anomalies in CA is closely linked to evapotranspiration rise in the plain and foothill areas. The finding of the present study collaborates more with Aralova et al (2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…In contrast, Aralova et al (2016) remarked that the increase in drought anomalies in CA is closely linked to evapotranspiration rise in the plain and foothill areas. The finding of the present study collaborates more with Aralova et al (2016). Both PET and Pr were projected to increase significantly in the basin in the far future for different scenarios.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

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Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Salehie¹,

Hamed²,

Shahid

2021

Preprint

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Droughts significantly affect socioeconomic and the environment primarily by decreasing the water availability of a region. This study aims to assess the changes in drought characteristics in Central Asia's transboundary Amu Darya river basin for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature (Pr, Tmx and Tmn) simulations of 19 global climate models (GCMs) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) were used to select the best models to prepare the multimodel ensemble (MME). The standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to estimate droughts for multiple timescales from Pr and potential evapotranspiration (PET) derived from Tmx and Tmn. The changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of droughts for different severities and timescales were evaluated for the two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060-2099, compared to the base period of 1975-2014. The study revealed four GCMs, AWI-CM-1-1-MR, CMCC-ESM2, INM-CM4-8 and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, as most suitable for projections of droughts in the study area. The multimodel ensemble (MME) mean of the selected GCMs showed a decrease in Pr by -3 to 12% in the near future and a change in the range of 3 to -9% in the far future in most parts of the basin for different SSPs. The PET showed almost no change in most parts of the basin in the near future and an increase in the range of 10 to 70% in the far future. The change (%) in projected drought occurrence showed to noticeably decrease in the near future, particularly for moderate droughts by up to ≤-50% for SSP5-8.5 and an increase in the far future by up to ≥30% for SSP3-7.0. The increase in all severities of droughts was projected mostly in the center and northwest of the basin. Overall, the results showed a drought shift from the east to the northwest of the basin in the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 94%