Projection of droughts in Amu river basin for shared socioeconomic pathways CMIP6

Salehie, Obaidullah; Hamed, Mohammed Magdy; Ismail, Tarmizi; Shahid, Shamsuddin

doi:10.1007/s00704-022-04097-2

Cited by 21 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 88 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Moreover, the optimal number of GCMs required to generate the ensemble has not been determined [48]. Previous studies mainly used ensembles comprising 3-10 descending models [32,[49][50][51] or set thresholds to enable evaluation indicators to identify the best models [52]. Thus, these studies have some limitations in terms of determining the best simulations for a given region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Precipitation Based on the CMIP6 Optimal Multi-Model Ensemble in the Pearl River Basin, China

He,

Chen,

Sun

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Precipitation fluctuations in the Pearl River Basin (PRB) have a significant impact on river runoff, causing huge economic losses and casualties. However, future precipitation variations in the PRB remain unclear. Therefore, we explored the projected changes in precipitation in the PRB based on the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) model via three shared socio-economic pathways scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). In our study, the optimal ensemble of global climate models in the PRB was identified using the comprehensive rating index (CRI), which is based on climatology, spatial variation, and interannual variability, and it was used to analyze potential precipitation changes in the basin in the period 2025–2100. The results showed that the CMIP6 models underestimated precipitation in the PRB; the consistency between the observations and the multi-model ensemble mean of the four best models was higher than those of any other ensembles, and the CRI value was highest (0.92). The annual precipitation in the PRB shows a significant increasing trend under three scenarios from 2025 to 2100 (p < 0.01), with the highest rate of precipitation increase being seen under the high-emission scenario. By the end of the 21st century, the regional mean precipitation in the PRB will increase by 13%, 9.4%, and 20.1% under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Spatially, the entire basin is projected to become wetter, except for a slight decrease of less than 6% in the central part of the basin and the Pearl River Delta in the near term in the 21st century, and the highest increases are projected to occur in the Xijiang River basin.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Changes in Precipitation Based on the CMIP6 Optimal Multi-Model Ensemble in the Pearl River Basin, China

He,

Chen,

Sun

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Studies have already shown that a little change in precipitation amount can cause a significant rise in precipitation related extremes (Chiew et al, 2009;Pour et al, 2014;Khan et al, 2019;. Hence, a big change in climatic variables such as precipitation may lead to climate-change-induced adversities such as hydrometeorological hazards in the western part of Asia (Salman et al, 2017;Pour et al, 2018;Salehie et al, 2022). Iraq, situated in western Asia, is globally one of the least climate-resilient countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and temperature in Iraq for different shared socioeconomic pathways with selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6

Salman

Hamed

Shahid

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Changes in precipitation and temperature have crucial implications in the arid region due to their fragile environment. This study was an attempt to estimate possible spatiotemporal alteration of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in Iraq. Statistical downscaling of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate model (GCM) simulations for different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) was utilized. The GCMs were ranked according to their skills in simulating climate research unit (CRU) precipitation and temperature climatology along with their seasonality. Nonlocal model output statistics (MOS) models were implemented using a support vector machine (SVM) for downscaling and projection of selected GCM precipitation and temperature. Results revealed ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, GISS-E2-1-G and MRI-ESM2-0 GCMs are most suitable for Iraq. The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation indicated a substantial decrease to north (up to −7.8%Ámm −1 ) while an increase (around 3.0%) to south for different SSPs. Far future (2060-2099) showed both increase and decrease in precipitation than near future (2020-2059). The precipitation was projected to reduce in winter and increase in summer for all climate zones during both periods. The maximum temperature was projected to increase by 4.5 C to the north and 0.9-2 C to the south. In contrast, the minimum temperature was projected to rise by 1.0-3.5 C to both north and south. Both maximum and minimum temperatures may increase; however, more increases might be in winter and less in summer. The minimum temperature increase will be higher than the maximum temperature in the cold northern region and vice versa. Uncertainty in precipitation and temperature projections was higher for the far-future period with higher SSPs than for the near-future period with lower SSPs. The results of this study can guide the development of strategic policies for climate resiliency development in Iraq.

show abstract

“…Drought causes water shortage and affects the economic activities and population over a large area (Kala 2017;Malik et al 2021;Marumbwa et al 2021;Salehie et al 2022a). Therefore, the economic impact of droughts is considered the worst compared to other hydrological hazards (Damania et al 2017;Sharafati et al 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatiotemporal changes in droughts in Iraq for shared socioeconomic pathways

Hamed

Sammen

Nashwan

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Semiarid climate has made Iraq one of the most vulnerable regions to droughts. With temperatures rising and precipitation falling, projected climate models indicate a possible aggravation of droughts in the country. Iraq's shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are the focus of this study, which uses CMIP6 climate models to examine the spatiotemporal variation of drought. The historical simulations of 21 GCMs were evaluated to choose a selection of GCMs. A support vector machine was used to downscaled the simulations of the selected GCM to 0.5° resolution. Downscaled simulations were used to estimate droughts employing standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for the near (2020–2059) and far future (2060–2099) periods in comparison to the reference period (1975–2014). EC-Earth3-Veg, BCC-CSM2-MR and ACCESS-CM2 performed the best in simulating Iraq's climate. Historical simulation of droughts revealed northern Iraq as most prone to droughts of all severities and time scales. The projections of droughts revealed a decline in drought frequency in the near but a large rise in the late period. SSP 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 saw a greater decline in the near future and a rise in the far future. In both scenarios, drought frequency decreased between 0 and 40% in the near future, while an increase of up to 45% in moderate and severe droughts in the far future. In contrast, most scenarios showed a decrease in extreme droughts up to 30% in the drought-prone northern region, signifying a shift in the extreme drought-prone zone in Iraq.

show abstract

Projection of droughts in Amu river basin for shared socioeconomic pathways CMIP6

Cited by 21 publications

References 88 publications

Projected Changes in Precipitation Based on the CMIP6 Optimal Multi-Model Ensemble in the Pearl River Basin, China

Projected Changes in Precipitation Based on the CMIP6 Optimal Multi-Model Ensemble in the Pearl River Basin, China

Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and temperature in Iraq for different shared socioeconomic pathways with selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6

Spatiotemporal changes in droughts in Iraq for shared socioeconomic pathways

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About