Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Salehie, Obaidullah; Hamed, Mohammed Magdy; Shahid, Shamsuddin

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1088081/v1

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Furthermore, the model outputs were categorized into four categories that is, low (0.0, 0.25), Moderate (0.25, 0.50), high (0.50, 0.75), and very high (0.75, 1.0) for easy interpretation. For extrapolation over the study area under future scenarios, the Model Intercomparison Project of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Lower‐Resolved version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR) 2050 projection was used due to its popularity and its good accuracy of projection (Salehie et al., 2021). The future scenario of the shared socio‐economic pathways version (SSP2‐4.5) was used as it is hypothesized as the more realistic case scenario under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (Agboka et al., 2022).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio‐Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa

Sokame,

Agboka,

Kimathi

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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Desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria) infestations cause significant damage to crops and pastureland, impeding food security and livelihoods globally. In recent years, some East African countries have suffered severe desert locust outbreaks, causing significant harm to agriculture and local communities. To comprehensively understand and mitigate the socio‐economic impacts of this pest, an integrated assessment approach is crucial. This study proposes an integrated assessment model that combines ecological, economic, and social dimensions to analyze the multifaceted impacts of the desert locust on the rate of urbanization changes, farming expansion, and food production and how they lead to food unavailability (demand, supply, and price) and food and nutrition insecurity in Eastern Africa. A system dynamics‐based assessment model was first developed for Sudan using the dynamic relations among the factors and their variations over time and how they affect the socio‐economic variables. The developed model was used to spatially simulate the impacts over the entire Eastern Africa. Various scenarios were further simulated and analyzed, incorporating different policy options to effectively mitigate the impacts. Results demonstrated that in all the countries, desert locusts extensively contribute to the slowing down of farming expansion and food production and supply. Consequently, these factors lead to increased urbanization rates through people rural‐urban migration and food demand at different magnitudes across different countries. By considering both short‐term and long‐term effects, this approach aims to provide policymakers, researchers, and practitioners with a holistic understanding of the complex dynamics involved and inform effective management strategies. For example, communities equipped with accurate breeding detection tools and employing an integrated pest management strategy combining chemical pesticides and biopesticides had the highest potential for effectively mitigating the future impacts of desert locusts for enhancing community livelihood.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Earth's Future (Salehie et al, 2021). The future scenario of the shared socioeconomic pathways version (SSP2-4.5) was used as it is hypothesized as the more realistic case scenario under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (Agboka et al, 2022).…”

Section: Spatial Extrapolation Of the Impact Of Desert Locusts In The...mentioning

confidence: 99%

An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio‐Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa

Sokame,

Agboka,

Kimathi

et al. 2024

Earth's Future

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“…In this regard, we defined the R 0 as the average number of daughters that an adult female produces during her lifetime, which is one of the indicators of parasitoid performance on its host. For extrapolation over the study area under future scenarios, the Model Intercomparison Project of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Lower-Resolved version (MPI-ESM1.2-LR) projection was used due to its popularity [ 39 ]. The future scenario of the shared socioeconomic pathways version (SSP2-4.5) was hypothesized as the more realistic case scenario under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Fuzzy-Based Model to Predict the Spatio-Temporal Performance of the Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris Natural Enemy against Tuta absoluta under Climate Change

Agboka

Tonnang

Abdel‐Rahman

et al. 2022

Biology

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The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta, causes up to 100% tomato crop losses. As Tuta absoluta is non-native to African agroecologies and lacks efficient resident natural enemies, the microgastrine koinobiont solitary oligophagous larval endoparasitoid, Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris (Marsh) (Syn.: Apanteles gelechiidivoris Marsh) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was released for classical biological control. This study elucidates the current and future spatio-temporal performance of D. gelechiidivoris against T. absoluta in tomato cropping systems using a fuzzy logic modelling approach. Specifically, the study considers the presence of the host and the host crop, as well as the parasitoid reproductive capacity, as key variables. Results show that the fuzzy algorithm predicted the performance of the parasitoid (in terms of net reproductive rate (R0)), with a low root mean square error (RMSE) value (< 0.90) and a considerably high R2 coefficient (= 0.98), accurately predicting the parasitoid performance over time and space. Under the current climatic scenario, the parasitoid is predicted to perform well in all regions throughout the year, except for the coastal region. Under the future climatic scenario, the performance of the parasitoid is projected to improve in all regions throughout the year. Overall, the model sheds light on the varying performance of the parasitoid across different regions of Kenya, and in different seasons, under both current and future climatic scenarios.

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“…Studies have already shown that a little change in precipitation amount can cause a significant rise in precipitation related extremes (Chiew et al ., 2009; Pour et al ., 2014; Khan et al ., 2019; Nashwan et al ., 2019; Nashwan and Shahid, 2019). Hence, a big change in climatic variables such as precipitation may lead to climate‐change‐induced adversities such as hydrometeorological hazards in the western part of Asia (Salman et al ., 2017; 2019; Pour et al ., 2018; Salehie et al ., 2022). Iraq, situated in western Asia, is globally one of the least climate‐resilient countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and temperature in Iraq for different shared socioeconomic pathways with selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6

Salman

Hamed

Shahid

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Changes in precipitation and temperature have crucial implications in the arid region due to their fragile environment. This study was an attempt to estimate possible spatiotemporal alteration of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature in Iraq. Statistical downscaling of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate model (GCM) simulations for different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) was utilized. The GCMs were ranked according to their skills in simulating climate research unit (CRU) precipitation and temperature climatology along with their seasonality. Nonlocal model output statistics (MOS) models were implemented using a support vector machine (SVM) for downscaling and projection of selected GCM precipitation and temperature. Results revealed ACCESS-CM2, BCC-CSM2-MR, GISS-E2-1-G and MRI-ESM2-0 GCMs are most suitable for Iraq. The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation indicated a substantial decrease to north (up to −7.8%Ámm −1 ) while an increase (around 3.0%) to south for different SSPs. Far future (2060-2099) showed both increase and decrease in precipitation than near future (2020-2059). The precipitation was projected to reduce in winter and increase in summer for all climate zones during both periods. The maximum temperature was projected to increase by 4.5 C to the north and 0.9-2 C to the south. In contrast, the minimum temperature was projected to rise by 1.0-3.5 C to both north and south. Both maximum and minimum temperatures may increase; however, more increases might be in winter and less in summer. The minimum temperature increase will be higher than the maximum temperature in the cold northern region and vice versa. Uncertainty in precipitation and temperature projections was higher for the far-future period with higher SSPs than for the near-future period with lower SSPs. The results of this study can guide the development of strategic policies for climate resiliency development in Iraq.

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Projection of Droughts in Amu Darya River Basin for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Cited by 6 publications

References 52 publications

An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio‐Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa

An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio‐Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa

A Fuzzy-Based Model to Predict the Spatio-Temporal Performance of the Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris Natural Enemy against Tuta absoluta under Climate Change

Projecting spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and temperature in Iraq for different shared socioeconomic pathways with selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6

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