A Fuzzy-Based Model to Predict the Spatio-Temporal Performance of the Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris Natural Enemy against Tuta absoluta under Climate Change

Abstract

The South American tomato pinworm, Tuta absoluta, causes up to 100% tomato crop losses. As Tuta absoluta is non-native to African agroecologies and lacks efficient resident natural enemies, the microgastrine koinobiont solitary oligophagous larval endoparasitoid, Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris (Marsh) (Syn.: Apanteles gelechiidivoris Marsh) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) was released for classical biological control. This study elucidates the current and future spatio-temporal performance of D. gelechiidivoris against T. absoluta in tomato cropping systems using a fuzzy logic modelling approach. Specifically, the study considers the presence of the host and the host crop, as well as the parasitoid reproductive capacity, as key variables. Results show that the fuzzy algorithm predicted the performance of the parasitoid (in terms of net reproductive rate (R0)), with a low root mean square error (RMSE) value (< 0.90) and a considerably high R2 coefficient (= 0.98), accurately predicting the parasitoid performance over time and space. Under the current climatic scenario, the parasitoid is predicted to perform well in all regions throughout the year, except for the coastal region. Under the future climatic scenario, the performance of the parasitoid is projected to improve in all regions throughout the year. Overall, the model sheds light on the varying performance of the parasitoid across different regions of Kenya, and in different seasons, under both current and future climatic scenarios.

An Integrated Assessment Approach for Socio‐Economic Implications of the Desert Locust in Eastern Africa

“…For extrapolation over the study area under future scenarios, the Model Intercomparison Project of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Lower‐Resolved version (MPI‐ESM1.2‐LR) 2050 projection was used due to its popularity and its good accuracy of projection (Salehie et al., 2021). The future scenario of the shared socio‐economic pathways version (SSP2‐4.5) was used as it is hypothesized as the more realistic case scenario under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (Agboka et al., 2022).…”

“…Earth's Future (Salehie et al, 2021). The future scenario of the shared socioeconomic pathways version (SSP2-4.5) was used as it is hypothesized as the more realistic case scenario under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) (Agboka et al, 2022).…”

Biological reinforcement learning simulation for natural enemy -host behavior: Exploring deep learning algorithms for population dynamics

“…Herbivore densities and parasitoid parasitism rates have a major impact on the dynamics of interaction between a pest and its natural enemy [ 8 ]. Parasitoids influence population dynamics of pest herbivores and have the potential to control pest populations effectively [ 9 ]. In other hand, insect predators primarily feeds on other insects or arthropods as their main source of food.…”

Interactions between the Entomopathogenic Fungus Metarhizium anisopliae ICIPE 20 and the Endoparasitoid Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris, and Implications for Combined Biocontrol of Tuta absoluta

“…The parasitoid has the potential to achieve a parasitism rate of up to 86% on T. absoluta larvae [ 21 ]. Dolichogenidea gelechiidivoris was lately released in East African countries (Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia) to control T. absoluta [ 22 ], and significant impact is expected from this parasitoid [ 23 , 24 ].…”