ENSO variations and drought occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines

Harger, J. Robin E.

doi:10.1016/1352-2310(94)00362-o

Cited by 31 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…Not accounting for income-smoothing ex-ante or ex-post strategies, the yield depressions translate into a reduction of total annual household income by one third, on the average. These findings are in line with other studies conducted in Indonesia, such as Salafsky (1994), Harger (1995), and Amien et al (1996). Contrary to Naylor et al (2001) and Falcon et al (2004) who found that El Niño affected rice production in Java and other major ricegrowing areas of Indonesia mainly through a reduction in the area harvested rather than a decline in yields, we find that the opposite is the case in Central Sulawesi: here, most farmers followed their 'standard' crop management procedure both in 'normal' and drought b t Values are based on the heteroscedasticity-consistent standard errors proposed by White (1980).…”

Section: The Risk Of Drought and Farmers' Responsessupporting

confidence: 95%

“…Based on the analysis of 28 El Niño episodes in Indonesia and the Philippines in the period between 1866 and 1992 by Harger (1995) one can conclude that, on the average, comparatively dry conditions occur every 4.5 years, which means that the probability of drought is a substantial 22%. However, there is considerable temporal variation: typically, El Niño recurs every 2 to 7 years (NOAA 2005).…”

Section: The Risk Of Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

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What determines farmers’ resilience towards ENSO-related drought? An empirical assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

et al. 2007

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Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that is likely to become even more pronounced during the twenty-first century. Little is known about the impact of ENSO-related drought on crop yields and food security, especially at the household level. This paper seeks to contribute to closing this knowledge gap with a case study from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Its main objective is to measure household resilience towards drought periods and to identify its influencing factors to deduce policy implications. Using indicators for consumption expenditures, we construct an index measuring household drought resilience; we then apply an asset-based livelihood framework to identify its determinants. Most of the drought-affected farm households are forced to substantially reduce expenditures for food and other basic necessities. Households' drought resilience is strengthened by the possession of liquid assets, access to credit, and the level of technical efficiency in agricultural production. The results suggest a number of policy recommendations, namely improvement of the farmers' access to ENSO forecasts, the provision of credit and savings products to facilitate consumption smoothing, and the intensification of agricultural extension in view of low levels of productivity found in agricultural production.

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Section: The Risk Of Drought and Farmers' Responsessupporting

confidence: 95%

Section: The Risk Of Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

What determines farmers’ resilience towards ENSO-related drought? An empirical assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

et al. 2007

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“…The LP model shows that all drought-affected households suffer considerable income losses even if they adapt their resource allocation in an optimal way. The magnitude of the simulated El Niño-related income losses is in line with the findings of Salafsky (1994), Harger (1995) and Amien et al (1996). However, we extend these findings by illustrating the large difference between household types in terms of drought impact: the poorest, rice-based class (L1) is the least susceptible to income losses; this class is shielded from drought effects by a reliable irrigation system that is fed by a large catchment area.…”

Section: Modelling the Effect Of Drought On Agricultural Incomessupporting

confidence: 74%

Vulnerability of smallholder farmers to ENSO-related drought in Indonesia

Keil¹,

Teufel²,

Gunawan³

et al. 2009

Clim. Res.

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“…As indicated by many studies focusing on the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and the climate of Indonesia [e.g., Hackert and Hastenrath , 1986; Harger , 1995; Kirono et al , 1999; McBride et al , 2003; Aldrian and Susanto , 2003; Chang et al , 2004] the dominant source of year‐to‐year variability in Indonesian climate is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most influential climate pattern globally at interannual timescales [ Ropelewski and Halpert , 1987; Wallace et al , 1998]. The impact of ENSO on precipitation is depicted in Figure 2.…”

Section: Enso: Source Of Predictability For Indonesiamentioning

confidence: 99%

A role for tropical tropospheric temperature adjustment to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the seasonality of monsoonal Indonesia precipitation predictability

Giannini¹,

Robertson²,

Qian³

2007

J. Geophys. Res.

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We describe the seasonality in the variability and predictability of Indonesian monsoonal climate, dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and interpret it in light of theories of the development of the global ENSO teleconnection which explain the evolution of the response of the tropical ocean‐atmosphere to ENSO's perturbation. High predictability during the dry and transition seasons, which coincide with ENSO growth, is expected from the coherent large‐scale response to ENSO's initial perturbation. As the tropical ocean‐atmosphere equilibrates to ENSO, and ENSO itself begins to decay, its direct influence diminishes, and regional features associated with the delayed response to ENSO become more prominent. Consistent with this interpretation, in a preliminary observational analysis of station data over Jawa we find that predictability is high during the growth phase of ENSO. We also find that at these regional scales there may be more predictability than previously thought as ENSO decays. Finally, we show that a simple one‐tier prediction system, i.e., a system where the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies is internally consistent, better captures the intrinsic coupled nature of the ENSO teleconnection, compared to a two‐tier system where the ocean forces the atmosphere, but does not respond to its feedback.

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ENSO variations and drought occurrence in Indonesia and the Philippines

Cited by 31 publications

References 5 publications

What determines farmers’ resilience towards ENSO-related drought? An empirical assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

What determines farmers’ resilience towards ENSO-related drought? An empirical assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

Vulnerability of smallholder farmers to ENSO-related drought in Indonesia

A role for tropical tropospheric temperature adjustment to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the seasonality of monsoonal Indonesia precipitation predictability

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