A role for tropical tropospheric temperature adjustment to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the seasonality of monsoonal Indonesia precipitation predictability

Giannini, Alessandra; Robertson, Andrew W.; Qian, Jian‐Hua

doi:10.1029/2007jd008519

Cited by 36 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Besides the monsoonal damping effect, there is anomalous large-scale sinking (rising) of the Walker circulation over the Maritime Continent in El Niñ o (La Niñ a) years [see Bjerknes (1969) and Giannini et al (2007); for brevity, we call it the ''Walker circulation effect'' hereafter]. In north Borneo, the monsoonal damping effect and the Walker circulation effect are of the same sign and thus reinforce each other in influencing local rainfall in DJF.…”

Section: Observed Datamentioning

confidence: 93%

“…10). The warming is caused by the reduction of surface evaporation due to below normal surface wind speed (Hendon 2003) and increased solar radiation to the surface due to fewer than normal cloudy and rainy days above the seas in DJF (Giannini et al 2007). In Fig.…”

Section: Possible Role Of Regional Sst Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The windward terrain lifting and the rain shadow effect may also play important roles in this monsoonal region (Chang et al 2005b). On the other hand, the intensity of the Asian-Australian monsoon and the prevalent weather regimes are subject to the influence of the Pacific-Indian Ocean basin-scale interannual variability of ENSO (Aldrian and Susanto 2003;Juneng and Tangang 2005;Giannini et al 2007; Moron et al 2009Moron et al , 2010Robertson et al 2010). Multiscale interactions among ENSO, monsoons, and diurnal cycle are found to be key to understanding dipolar patterns of ENSO rainfall variability over the nearby Java Island.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Diurnal Cycle in Different Weather Regimes and Rainfall Variability over Borneo Associated with ENSO

2013

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The interannual variability of precipitation over the island of Borneo in association with El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been studied by using the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded rain gauge precipitation, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Morphing Technique (CMORPH) satellite estimated precipitation, the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) satellite estimated sea winds, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data. Analysis of the GPCC precipitation shows a dipolar structure of wet southwest versus dry central and northeast in precipitation anomalies associated with El Niñ o over Borneo Island during the austral summer [December-February (DJF)]. By using the 0.258 and 3-hourly CMORPH precipitation, it is found that rainfall over Borneo is strongly affected by the diurnal cycle of land-sea breezes. The spatial distribution of rainfall over Borneo depends on the direction of monsoonal winds. Weather typing analysis indicates that the dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies associated with ENSO is caused by the variability in the frequency of occurrence of different weather types. Rainfall is enhanced in the coastal region where sea breezes head against off-shore synoptic-scale low-level winds (i.e., in the lee side or wake area of the island), which is referred to here as the ''wake effect.'' In DJF of El Niñ o years, the northwesterly austral summer monsoon in southern Borneo is weaker than normal over the Maritime Continent and easterly winds are more frequent than normal over Borneo, acting to enhance rainfall over the southwest coast of the island. This coastal rainfall generation mechanism in different weather types explains the dipole pattern of a wet southwest versus dry northeast in the rainfall anomalies over Borneo Island in the El Niñ o years.

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Section: Observed Datamentioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Possible Role Of Regional Sst Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

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Diurnal Cycle in Different Weather Regimes and Rainfall Variability over Borneo Associated with ENSO

2013

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“…During El Niñ o years, the location of maximum rainfall in the Pacific basin shifts from the equatorial western Pacific toward the central eastern Pacific, following the eastward displacement of warm SST anomalies (Hendon 2003;McBride et al 2003;Juneng and Tangang 2005). Consequently, the rising branch of the Walker circulation that corresponds to the maximum rainy region shifts eastward over the warm waters, and the anomalous descending region becomes located slightly east of Indonesia (Bjerknes 1969;Wang et al 2000;Hendon 2003); thus, the low-level wind anomalies over Indonesia are easterly, in the same direction as the mean monsoonal winds during SON (southeasterlies), but become opposite to the mean monsoonal winds during December-February (DJF) (northwesterlies) (Klein et al 1999;Hamada et al 2002;Giannini et al 2007). Therefore, the El Niñ o increases the monsoonal wind speed during SON, but weakens the monsoonal winds during DJF in Indonesia (Bjerknes 1969;McBride et al 2003;Juneng and Tangang 2005).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Interactions among ENSO, the Monsoon, and Diurnal Cycle in Rainfall Variability over Java, Indonesia

Qian

Robertson

Moron

2010

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

180

132

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Using a high-resolution regional climate model-the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3)-and station and satellite observations, the authors have studied the spatial heterogeneity of climate variability over Java Island, Indonesia. Besides the wellknown anomalous dry conditions that characterize the dry and transition seasons during an El Niñ o year, analysis of regional model output reveals a wet mountainous south versus dry northern plains in precipitation anomalies associated with El Niñ o over Java during the peak rainy season. Modeling experiments indicate that this mountains/plains contrast is caused by the interaction of the El Niñ o-induced monsoonal wind anomalies and the island/mountain-induced local diurnal cycle of winds and precipitation. During the wet season of El Niñ o years, anomalous southeasterly winds over the Indonesian region oppose the climatological northwesterly monsoon, thus reducing the strength of the monsoon winds over Java. This weakening is found to amplify the local diurnal cycle of land-sea breezes and mountain-valley winds, producing more rainfall over the mountains, which are located closer to the southern coast than to the northern coast. Therefore, the variability of the diurnal cycle associated with this local spatial asymmetry of topography is the underlying cause for the heterogeneous pattern of wet south/dry north rainfall anomalies during El Niñ o years. It is further shown that the mean southeasterly wind anomalies during December-February of El Niñ o years result from more frequent occurrence of a quiescent monsoon weather type, during which the strengthened sea-breeze and valley-breeze convergence leads to above normal rainfall over the mountains.

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“…Sejalan dengan pendapat Battisti et al (2006) yang menganalisis korelasi antara ENSO dengan curah hujan di Indonesia, dan diketahui bahwa curah hujan pada bulan September-Desember sangat berkorelasi (korelasi 80-100%) dengan ENSO. Dari Desember hingga Februari, pengaruh ENSO melemah (Giannini et al 2007). Mundurnya awal musim penghujan akan menggeser pola dan rotasi tanaman yang menyebabkan risiko pertanaman kedua terkena kekeringan meningkat.…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Analisis risiko kekeringan dengan menggunakan decision network di sentra produksi padi di Jawa Barat

Suciantini

Buono

Boer

2017

Prosiding Seminar Nasional Masyarakat Biodiversitas Indonesia

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Abstrak. Suciantini, Buono A, Boer R. 2017. Analisis risiko kekeringan dengan menggunakan decision network di sentra produksi padi di Jawa . Salah satu informasi yang sangat penting dalam penjadwalan penanaman bagi petani adalah kalender tanam. Informasi kalender tanam sudah mulai disusun oleh Balai Penelitian Agroklimat dan Hidrologi, Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian, Kementerian Pertanian sejak tahun 2007 dan dikembangkan setiap tahun. Penyusunan kalender tanam yang bersifat dinamis dilakukan melalui pendekatan suatu jejaring pengambilan keputusan (decision network). Decision network (DN) dapat diaplikasikan sebagai strategi penyesuaian bentuk pola tanam berdasarkan prakiraan musim untuk mengatasi masalah kekeringan. Kekeringan mungkin terjadi pada pertanaman kedua apabila sifat hujan di bawah normal, atau awal masuk musim penghujan mengalami keterlambatan, sehingga penanaman kedua mengalami kemunduran. Kajian ini memaparkan hasil analisis kalender tanam dinamis sebagai alat bantu pengambil keputusan dalam menyusun strategi penanaman yang dapat meminimalkan risiko iklim, tetapi di sisi lain dapat meningkatkan keuntungan ekonomi. Penelitian dilakukan dengan automasi dari model sistem kalender tanam dinamis yang konsepnya dikembangkan dari penelitian yang dilakukan oleh Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi, FMIPA, IPB bekerja sama dengan Pusat Studi Iklim IPB (CCROM-SEAP, IPB). Automasi sistem kalender tanam tersebut dilakukan di 10 kabupaten di Jawa Barat yaitu Kabupaten Bandung, Ciamis, Cianjur, Cirebon, Garut, Indramayu, Karawang, Majalengka, Subang, dan Kabupaten Sukabumi. Hasil fungsi utilitas merupakan indikator kalender tanam dinamis yang memperlihatkan luasan kekeringan yang dapat terjadi (nilai k) dan pilihan pola tanam yang dapat dilakukan untuk pertanaman pada musim tanam II (MK) (nilai D). Pada umumnya, tingkat risiko kekeringan akan meningkat tajam pada tingkat risiko k 4 (tingkat kekeringan berat). Ketepatan waktu tanam diharapkan dapat meminimalkan kerugian akibat kehilangan hasil. Penghitungan risiko tingkat kekeringan dengan menggunakan pola tanam ideal diharapkan dapat menyumbangkan produksi padi yang optimal dan menurunkan risiko kegagalan panen apabila kemungkinan terjadi kekeringan. Informasi nilai SOI yang dipadukan dengan prakiraan kondisi curah hujan pada bulan Mei hingga Desember diharapkan dapat menjadi acuan awal untuk perencanaan pertanaman. Kata kunci: Decision network, Jawa Barat, kalender tanam, kekeringan, padi Abstract. Suciantini, Buono A, Boer R. 2017. Drought risk analysis by using decision network in production centers of rice in West Java. Pros Sem Nas Masy Biodiv Indon 7: 62-68.One of the most important information in the scheduling of planting for farmers is planting calendar. Information about planting calendar has been prepared by Indonesian Agro-climate and Hydrology Research Institute, Indonesian Agency for Agricultural Research and Development, Ministry of Agriculture since 2007 and developed every year. Preparation of the dynamic planting calendar is condu...

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A role for tropical tropospheric temperature adjustment to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the seasonality of monsoonal Indonesia precipitation predictability

Cited by 36 publications

References 51 publications

Diurnal Cycle in Different Weather Regimes and Rainfall Variability over Borneo Associated with ENSO

Diurnal Cycle in Different Weather Regimes and Rainfall Variability over Borneo Associated with ENSO

Interactions among ENSO, the Monsoon, and Diurnal Cycle in Rainfall Variability over Java, Indonesia

Analisis risiko kekeringan dengan menggunakan decision network di sentra produksi padi di Jawa Barat

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